I think the final moves are now being made for a total disaster in Syria. If all we get out of this is a regional war, we should count ourselves fortunate. The two key factors are Erdogan’s move to Syria’s eastern border with Iraq on the Euphrates River. Once he does that, he will directly engage US troops. The second decisive factor is with the slaughter of several hundred Russian mercs Putin’s hand has been forced. He is up for election after all. He simply can’t afford a major Syrian scandal at this point. It is a common tactic of desperate, totalitarian regimes, like Argentina going to war with Britain over the Falklands. The reason they did that was to prevent the mass demonstrations from bringing down the government. It didn’t work, but they started a war anyway.
I believe historical forces are now in play that can’t be bottled up any longer. It is the 100 year mark since the collapse of the historical Ottoman Empire, that’s the one Erdogan wants to restore, as well as the British and French partition of the Middle East. All things have a cycle from birth to death, and I think the Imperial model, the Colonial model imposed on the Middle East is reaching its expiration date.
I also think the various factions are aligning up nicely for the final confrontation that will trigger World War Three. We have a desperate Erdogan, fully seduced by his historical Ottoman fantasy. We have a Putin, now faced with a political crisis that threatens his rule. Next, we have a militant Iran, and its Hezzbollah clone, itching to light it up with Israel. We have Assad junior, who doesn’t want a Kurdish state in Syria anymore than Erdogan does. The combatants will align as follows: Iran, Hezzbollah, Assad Junior, Russia and Turkey against the US Coalition, the Kurds, NATO, and Israel. Israel wants to take down Iran, and Iran wants to take down Israel. Israel is also having its own political crisis.
Once this free for all gets going, and we could be looking at a two to four week time frame, depending on who shoots first, the French post from yesterday will be seen as prophetic. I am also saying that once it gets lit up, all the other players are going to get involved. The list would include Saudi Arabia, which despises Iran, they are Shia Muslims, and the Saudis are Sunni. Saudi Arabia also hates Hezzbollah in Lebanon. The Saudi government has also made direct threats against Lebanon, so it won’t take much to bring them in. Finally, the Shia Houhi tribe in Yemen, the one that is fighting Saudi Arabia already, will engage as an Iranian proxy. The result of that is both the Suez Canal, under threat from the Houthi, and the Straits of Hormuz, under threat from Iran, will be closed. Of course, all it would take is one missile and the insurance companies won’t insure the tankers. At that point, even if all Iran or the Houthi tribesmen did is threaten to shoot, it would be enough.
At any rate, things are coming into focus in Syria. We may somehow get a diplomatic solution to all of this, but after Tillerson and his dog and pony show with Erdogan things don’t look promising. In fact, I would say now that Tillerson’s plane wheels are off the tarmac Erdogan will unleash his military on the Kurds. And after that, to paraphrase the French King, the one before the final one, Apres moi, les deluge. After me, the deluge. He was predicting the French Revolution by the way, but it applies to Syria also.
Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
My end of the world e book “Day of the Dogs” will soon be available for sale at smashwords. The url is
https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/267340 It is also at the following url