The news is now reporting there are cases of possible Middle Eastern flu in a New York City hospital. There are also reports of an unknown disease in Alabama killing two people. Chinese authorities continue to insist there have been NO new cases for the last week. The warm weather in China may have delayed the spread of flu, but it is more likely Chinese authorities have stopped testing for the flu virus.
At any rate, we now have several diseases showing up all over the world. We have the ongoing mutant SARS virus in the Mid East. We have the same virus in Europe. We have several cases of an unknown virus in Texas, the upper Mid West, and now presumably in Alabama. The disease in New York City is presumed to the be same one from Saudi Arabia. If that is really the case, then the disease spread is just beginning.


The disease news from the Middle East keeps getting worse. China has quieted down due to the ongoing data suppression effort by the Chinese government. If you don’t test for the mutant bird flu, then you don’t have a problem. The vector for China’s flu may very well be rats. If this is the case, it will continue to spread unchecked all through China.

The news from the Middle East continues to show ongoing disease spread. Tunisia has now reported the first fatal case of the mutant SARS virus that began in Jordan 14 months ago. The other thing is the cases in England, France, Germany, and now Tunisia confirm human to human transmission from being in an airplane with an infected person. The majority of cases have been in Saudi Arabia, primarily eastern Saudi Arabia. The disease is likely to be in the Gulf States. Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and Quatar also. Saudi Arabia is doing most of the testing which is why they are confirming the disease. Several of the Saudi Arabian, as well as the German case were of people living in the Gulf States. They ended up in either German or Saudi Arabia which is where they actually died. They were infected in the Gulf States. One Egyptian citizen also died after returning from Egypt to Saudi Arabia for treatment. Saudi Arabia makes the point that several of the cases are linked to Egypt, Quatar, Dubai and the UAE even if those countries are not reporting any cases. This lack of cases is due to the lack of testing besides the infected people being treated elsewhere.
The disease spread during March and April until on May 2nd Saudi Arabia reported 7 cases. 5 of the 7 cases were already dead which meant they got infected in April at the latest. Again, the level of transparency leaves a lot to be desired.
The status as of today is there have been dozens of cases, as well as many fatalities. Obviously, the SARS Middle Eastern mutant strain is gathering steam, spreading widely and shows no sign of slowing down at this point. It has also shown the ability to spread human to human. We know this from not only the airline passenger cases, but the family clusters and the hospital employees getting infected.
At any rate, we now have confirmed human to human transmission. We now have family clusters and infected hospital workers. Finally, we have people getting infected from being exposed to infected people during airline travel. The incubation period for the Corona Virus is between 7 to 10 days. Flu takes between 2 and 4 days to show symptoms. There have been cases of infected people being discharged and then showing symptoms several days later. This is not good.


Doomer Doug wrote his last blog entry less than twenty-four hours ago. Several very disturbing things have happened since then.

The general global disease context is there are three separate lethal diseases happening at the same time. The first is the killer flu virus in China. The second is the lethal virus/bacteria killing teenagers in Texas. The third is the ongoing spread of a lethal SARS type virus both in the MidEast and Europe.

The number of official flu cases in China is 131. This is four new cases in the last two weeks. The number of fatalities has gone from 21 two weeks ago to 35 today. Assuming there are no new cases, this means a kill rate percentage increase from 20 percent to over 30 percent. This is not logical. The kill rate shows the real and true number of flu cases is now 175. You get that number by maintaining the 20 percent kill rate. This is logical.

China is also now admitting a wave of “atypical pneumonia” in the area just north of Shanghai. This is ground zero of the lethal flu epidemic. This area has had flu cases since back in March. The Chinese admit the hospitals are being overwhelmed. They admit they are dealing with many cases. They just refuse to test for the lethal flu virus. No test means no disease. The Chinese government can then deny the spread of the lethal flu virus. If you don’t test for it, then it doesn’t exist.

France is now admitting two separate cases of the lethal SARS Mid East virus. They are also admitting human to human transmission. The second case was staying in the same room with the first case. The only way he could get sick is for human to human transmission. The SARS virus is in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, England, and now France.

The lethal virus in Texas has spread to the upper Mid West. Several teenagers have died from it over the last few weeks. The CDC and the WHO are using their patented spin control techniques in all three cases.

In summary, China is now experiencing the logical disease spread consistent with the mass travel earlier this month. The official version is ALL the cases in China are due to smog. Yes, gang, smog! This is not worthy of comment. Bejing has massive smog on a routine basis. They do not report overwhelmed hospitals. They do not report hundreds of cases of “atypical pneumonia.” Atypical pneumonia is a code word for the lethal flu that started in Shanghai back in February.

Doomer Doug has no idea how all this will play out. The Chinese reports are full consistent with the ongoing spread of the killer flu. The fact the Chinese government doesn’t admit this no longer matters. The real situation in China is there are overwhelmed hospitals in several areas of the east coast. The real situation is there are hundreds of cases of reported respiratory illness. We are told all of this has NOTHING to do with the killer flu. This is ridiculous. If you see a pile of bear poop, you can be sure the bear is not far away.

There will be bodies stacked like cordwood on the streets of China before the powers that be admit anything is going on.


Despite the best spin control efforts of Chinese authorities, the WHO, and the CDC a few things are becoming clearer regarding China’s Killer Flu.

The first is we are not dealing with a bird flu anymore. Many of the infected people had NO exposure to poultry, farms, or live poultry markets. Most of the birds tested weren’t infected with the flu virus. This means we are NOT dealing with a bird flu. We are dealing with a mutated virus that may have started out as a bird flu. It has now mutated into one that infects mammals and is no longer only in poultry. Why the authorities continue to say it is a bird flu, when exposure to birds is not required to be infected is beyond me. Why they persist in calling it a bird flu when few of the tested poultry are infected with it is beyond me.

The second issue is the disease vector now clearly includes the ability to transfer human to human. This has been true for several weeks now. Again, why the authorities continue to say exposure to poultry is required is not clear. We have had numerous examples of human to human transmission in family clusters. This is no longer in doubt.

The powers that be are still saying with a straight face that over the last two weeks there have been exactly four new cases. This is delusional. We KNOW there have been dozens to hundreds of cases of school children coming down with what we are told is the “flu.” We know the official flu season is over in China. We are being told that the school closures, and the many infected children have NOTHING to do with the lethal strain. This is no doubt because the Chinese health authorities are no longer testing these children. Assuming they have, it is clear they would deny positive results.

It is also clear that the reports of overwhelmed hospitals, school closures and sick students are fully consistent with the spread of the flu as a direct result of the mass travel earlier in May.
The process is slowly gaining speed. The true numbers of infected people is likely in the thousands by now. We shall see what happens over the next two week to six week time frame.
The deliberate and intentional denial of reality will have no impact on what the real reality is.
The powers that be can deny all they want. Something bad is happening in China related to the lethal flu virus. We can be sure of this.


It is clear to Doomer Doug that since the powers that be are openly suppressing accurate and timely disease data, we are on our own. This is not surprising to me at all. In fact, I expected it.

The disconnect between is really going on in China, versus what the powers that be are telling us is going on will continue to increase. The Chinese government, the CDC, and the WHO are in on the fix. So be it.

I am relying on two pieces of unofficial evidence to confirm my suspicions. The first one is the statement by Dr. Niman relating to several Shanghai hospitals being closed due to the overwhelming numbers of new flu cases. The official Chinese government version is there have been no new cases in Shanghai since April 13th. I believe Dr. Niman. He has consistently provided excellent information on both the Chinese flu and Saudi Arabian SARS type virus.

The next piece of unofficial information comes from a poster over at named China Connection. He has started a thread on the Chinese flu that is a fountainhead of information. Yesterday he posted a comment that the school where he teaches has started to see large numbers, or at least enough for him to notice, staying away from school because they are sick. Again, this is the kind of information we are going to have to use. The powers that be certainly aren’t going to tell us what is happening.

Doomer Doug squints his four eyes together and concludes the following based on this latest information. Tens of millions of Chinese moved around China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan during the May 1st holiday period. Doomer Doug predicted that this would lead to an increase in flu cases in the ten day to two or three week period. And VIOLIA!!!!!! According to China Connection at his school is starting to see students get sick and stay home. Are you seeing a pattern here, gang??? Again, there will be NO news stories about this. The Chinese government will ignore it. The CDC and the WHO will remain silent.

It is perfectly consistent for the disease incubation and vector method for school children to be getting sick starting on May 7th. This gives a one week incubation period for the flu. We know the period between infection and the first potential symptoms has been around seven days. We also KNOW some of the infected people are asymptomatic for longer than that. We also KNOW that even people who are showing flu symptoms will test NEGATIVE for the flu. The Taiwan man came home from China, wandered around for three days, showed symptoms, and then went into the hospital. It took several more days before he tested positive for the flu virus.

There are right now tens of millions of people roaming around China who have been exposed to this flu virus. How many of them will become infected is unknown. How many will begin to show symptoms is unknown. How many will be asymptomatic is unknown. How many will test negative for a week or two is unknown. We can say that over twenty percent of the people who actually do get infected will eventually die.

If Doomer Doug is correct, China Connection will be viewed as the canary in the coal mine in the months ahead. It is from first person reports like his we will understand what is actually happening in China.

The first dribble of new flu cases has begun. It was caused by tens of millions of Chinese citizens being exposed to the flu virus during the recent holiday period. The first concrete sign of this is this report of children becoming sick and staying home from school. We shall see what happens in the next week or two.


It is now apparent that the Chinese government is not reporting the true numbers of flu cases. The number of cases went from 125 to 127 and stopped. The reason it stopped is not because there have been no new cases. The reason it stopped was the reporting was stopped. China went from daily reports to weekly reports. The weekly reports show a total of two cases for the last week. This is beyond comprehension considering there were at least three or four cases a day all through April.

The Chinese have now returned from the May Day holiday travel period. They have clearly been exposed to this lethal flu virus. It has now effectively spread all over mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. The Chinese government is up to its old tricks again. They pulled the same cover-up methods with the SARS virus ten years ago. The Chinese government is no doubt thinking if they ignore the flu virus it will go away. At any rate, we will know one way or the other within the next ten to fourteen days. It has been well documented there are people who are infected that are asymptomatic. It has been well documented there are infected people who test negative for the flu virus. The Taiwan case comes to mind.

The other flu virus in the news is the Saudi Arabian one. This SARS like virus first was detected in medical staff in Jordan over one year ago. It has now resurfaced in Saudi Arabia. One of the infected people went back to England where he infected several family members. This virus has confirmed human to human transmission. We shall see how this plays out. The lethal rate is seven for seven documented cases in Saudi Arabia. We have no idea of how many people were infected. The Saudi government is also playing the cover up game.

Doomer Doug is looking for three things at this point.
One is the first documented case in Hong Kong. This may have already happened and not been reported.
Two is the first documented case in Japan.
Three is a spread of the flu virus in Taiwan.

Vietnam is also dealing with yet another flu virus that is causing hundreds of cases a week in the northern area near China and Hanoi.

We now have three separate lethal flu strains loose at the same time. Doomer Doug does not see how one of them will not turn into an epidemic at the regional level.
The jury is still out on whether we will see a global pandemic start in China. Doomer Doug has seen no evidence the global health authorities have been doing anything other than telling lies about the true nature of the situation.
Of course, this is nothing new. China did it with the SARS virus. They are doing it with the current lethal flu virus. One of the things that results from their under count of new cases is that it increases the kill rate. The total was 24 out of 127 a week ago. It is now 31 out of 127. The increase in dead is nearly 300 percent in one week alone. Again, that increase is due to the several hundred actual new cases not being admitted.

Like Doomer Doug said, we will have a clearer idea within the next two weeks. The reports of overwhelmed hospitals in Shanghai continue to circulate on the Internet. The official Chinese government position is there have been NO new flu cases in Shanghai for the last three weeks or so. This is so blatant a lie as to make one wonder what they are thinking. The Chinese government is so used to deceiving their own people they apparently think they can con the world with impunity. The fact the WHO and CDC are co-conspirators in this deception merely confirms what Doomer Doug has long thought.
We are on our own in regards to this flu, gang.


Urban planners have a phrase they use called infill. Infill is where a developed city takes all the empty lots, abandoned fast food places and gas stations and razes them to the ground. Developers then build apartments on the vacant lot. This infill process means that now all space available is developed.

Doomer Doug thinks the Chinese flu is using the same process. One of the key things people need to understand is that this particular flu is an urban flu. It has struck almost completely in cities. The process of infill means that the flu will now gradually fill in all the areas where cases have been reported.

The Chinese government has clearly decided to suppress the actual total number of cases for political reasons. The Chinese government has not taken any steps to restrict travel during the May Day holiday period. The result will be the continued spread of the flu virus into areas that currently do not have any cases.

Dr. Niman reports that several Shanghai hospitals are closed to new patients due to being overwhelmed with flu victims. Again, this is officially unconfirmed due to the ongoing fact suppression campaign by the Chinese government. We will find out no later than May 15 if the unrestricted travel has led to new cases. The Chinese government will no doubt try to suppress this information. At some point in the near future, these fact suppression efforts will be overwhelmed by the reality.

Today saw the further spread of the flu virus in Hunan towards the southwest. The flu virus is now on the move along with all the traveling people. Further, the issue of human to human transmission is in my opinion absolutely confirmed. Dr. Niman thinks human to human is happening, and that is good enough for me. Doomer Doug’s analysis of the reported flu cases indicates clearly that human to human transmission is now happening.

The real issue is sustained human to human transmission. Doomer Doug does not think we are at that point, yet. The emphasis is on the word yet. The example of the spinning three lemons on a one-armed-bandit slot machine is a good metaphor. Doomer Doug thinks the first two lemons are now lined up. They are geographic progression and geometric progression. The reality of geometric progression is being covered up by the Chinese government, the WHO and other health agencies. This cover-up will not last much longer.

The third lemon is sustained human to human transmission. The lemon is slowing its rotation as more cases of human to human happen. Eventually, it will stop and line up with the first two. When that happens, we will be entering the pandemic phase, at least in China.

Doomer Doug is keeping his four eyes on Hong Kong and Tawian. If Doomer Doug’s theory is correct we will see cases in Hong Kong and more cases in Taiwan. We will also see the continued infill process in all the areas that have reported cases.

At any rate, the Chinese Killer Flu is showing a truly amazing mutation ability. Several other Asian countries are now scanning flight crew and passengers for signs of fever. This so called fever test won’t be of much help. There are many documented cases of people being infected and failing to show any symptoms for several days. The case in Taiwan is a prime example of that.


This is a repost of an essay I wrote about SARS for back in 2003. This was 10 years ago. We dodged the bullet back then. Doomer Doug has always taken the view he gets the trends correctly. The issue of my “accuracy” has always been related to the timing. The powers that be have simply manipulated the system to prevent the kind of collapses I have long predicted. All things will happen in their own time I think. SARS didn’t turn out to be the kind of disaster I thought it would be back in 2003. It is now ten years later. We shall see if my decade old predictions for SARS turn out to apply to China’s new killer flu.

SARS Infects Global Economy
Doug McIntosh

I’ve been reserving my thoughts on SARS to posts over at for several reasons. One of them is, despite what some people e-mail me, I do try to back up some of my wilder accusations with some semblance of facts. Really. The other reason is I’ve been waiting for some cover from the mainstream press on this one. The press whores botched SARS coverage, like they have economic issues, for the usual reasons. None of which matters now in the slightest. Still, when I write the kinds of things I’m going to say in this essay, I do prefer to at least have one or two of the less whorish mainstream press types around.

So, I’ve waited until now to talk about SARS because I clearly understood from day one exactly what was at stake here. What’s at stake with SARS isn’t just people dying. What’s at stake is the entire global economic system dependent upon the free flow of people and goods. SARS is an economic disease as much as a respiratory one. SARS not only causes difficulty in breathing for human beings. It causes difficulty in tourism, air travel, hotels, conventions and trade shows for the global economy. In other words, SARS is quite effectively shutting down Asia to any kind of people movement. The unanswered question with SARS is whether it will spread to shutting down movement of physical goods. One third of all manufactured items come from China. One documented case of someone getting SARS from touching something made in China and global manufacturing will simply grind to a halt.

SARS stands for sudden acute respiratory syndrome and is thought to have originated in Red China next to Hong Kong. Russian scientists are on record as saying it is a bio-weapon run amok. Other, more likely in my opinion, theories believe it came out of the China soup. The China soup, remember the Hong Kong flu scare of 1997?, is that lethal mixture of pig, duck, chicken, human, and in SAR’s case, reputedly shrimp feces, that generates Chinese flu strains. Swirling around this unsanitary mixture, various viruses sometimes leap from animals to man and cause global pandemics. The last time that happened was the Spanish flu of 1919. The result was millions of people died worldwide. We had the global pandemic of Hong Kong flu in 1968 and the swine flu fiasco of the mid seventies. The world is long overdue for a major flu pandemic.

The world is going to pay dearly for the collapse in healthcare in Red China, Africa, South America and Russia. The Red Chinese in particular can fairly be said to have botched SARS so badly that criminal negligence doesn’t begin to cover their official response. SARS has now spread to 25 countries, killed 248 people and is officially said to have 4300 cases. One of the reasons I held off was due to the low number of total cases. My opinion now is the official figure is fantasy. RED CHINA ALONE NOW HAS 4300 SARS CASES IN MY OPINION. The reason I can make that kind of radical statement is no one, especially not the Red Chinese health authorities, have any idea what is going on out in the boondocks of China. 90 million Chinese wander around their country looking for work. How many thousands of SARS cases are just floating around the Chinese countryside? We won’t know until the bodies start piling up.

The global economic impact of SARS will be quite serious for Asia. My judgment is I do not possibly see how we can avoid a global SARS pandemic. We have no way of making a vaccine, since we only understand 78% of what is in the SARS virus. We have no clinical way of treating the virus effectively. We have no clear idea of how it is spread. We have no clear idea of how to prevent it being spread. We have no clear idea of why dozens of health care workers have gotten SARS even though they were using standard aseptic protocols. In other words, we don’t know very much at all about SARS. Once the hysteria spreads, the global economy will simply grind to a halt. Hong Kong retail sales are down 80%. Singapore tourism is down 70%. Asian air lines are canceling dozens of flights. The list of economic casualties is a lengthy one. And what can the health officials tell the businessman about when people will feel safe enough to return to China, Hong Kong or the rest of Asia? Weeks, months, years? No one knows and that is my point.

Can you imagine the impact on say Hong Kong if retail sales, or air travel, or tourism permanently declines 50% for six months. SARS may go away, only to leave a shattered economy in its wake. Morgan Stanley is now saying they expect Red China’s economy to decline 2% this quarter. Care to contemplate the global economic implications of that statement? Know anyone who plans to go anywhere near Toronto, Canada anytime soon? What do you think readers will happen to “globalism” when the World Health Organization has travel advisories on most of the major world cities? Deluded rants from doomer doug?, or the evening news six months from now. You tell me!

One of the tests I’ve been using is a estimated case numbers per moving weekly average in April. The list is over at and said that 3,000 cases would be known by such and such a day in April and 6000 cases by the end of April. That list has been right on for a global pandemic to begin sometime in May. Considering the lies of Red China, we have no real way of knowing exactly where we are on SARS right now. My personal opinion is it will continue to grow over the spring and summer, before turning into a true global pandemic during the normal flu season next winter. Given the large numbers of people with suppressed immune systems, i.e.. AIDS, elderly, etc., I see no way of avoiding a higher death rate than the suspect official rate of 5%. Once SARS gets out into the general population of the advanced countries, people with suppressed immune systems are going to be in trouble. Once SARS gets out into the general populations of countries without much of a health care system at all: well, imagine how an African with AIDS would fare once they got SARS. The only real question is have the dikes been breached without anyone noticing. The answer to that, in my opinion, is yes they have and the tidal wave is headed towards us.

I believe that spring 2003 will not be remembered for the War in Iraq. The only historically significant issue with Mr. Bush and his war will be the rape and pillage of history. The looting of artifacts will be what people remember about the Iraq War in 1000 years. Nor will it be remembered for the sour economy, or even the idiocy passing for prime time programming on American television. I think future historians will make the determination the Red Chinese leadership was so greedy, arrogant and incompetent that they squandered the one chance the world had in dealing with SARS. Future historians will look back at the results of that Red Chinese negligence and see it as the main story of 2003. Mene, Mene, Tekel, Uparsin wrote the divine hand on the walls of Babylon as the Imperial Lords of that era got drunk using the sacred cups. The days of our civilization have been numbered and our cup is now full. Our civilization has been weighed on the scales of justice and found wanting. Our civilization will be given to others. Isn’t it truly ironic that as America beats its chest in triumph over Iraq, an unknown virus prepares to destroy the foundations of the global economy and take our vaunted military with it. I am watching the chaos theory unfold in all its glory. The Globalist Empire done in by Red Chinese shrimp shit and the virus it spawned. Who needs reality television when reality is like this. The SARS battle will be won or lost in Red China. We have already lost there. The choice is between pandemic or globalism. Business as usual means a global SARS epidemic. Business not as usual means a global economic recession/depression. Maybe Mr. Sender is correct and SARS is some kind of Chinese counter move to Iraq. Too bad nobody told the virus to stay in the bottle.


26 April 2003


Doomer Doug has noticed a certain phrase being used by Chinese health authorities when talking about the people exposed to the 125 confirmed cases of flu. April 23rd had a total of 108 documented flu cases. April 25th had a total of 120. Today the 28th we are assured there were only five additional cases in a three day period. This is when the average increase has been in the three to five per day range. Perhaps the Chinese government is under counting documented cases.

Today also saw the admission of a second case in Hunan deep in central China. The flu will continue to spread.

The phrase “abnormal symptoms” Doomer Doug finds very interesting. We know hundreds of people were exposed to infected flu carriers. This is a fact. Doomer Doug simply notes the official Chinese government response is not to say there have been no symptoms in the hundreds of people exposed to infected people. They are instead saying that there have been no “abnormal symptoms.” Doomer Doug has no idea of what criteria Chinese health officials use to determine the difference between a normal symptom and one that is abnormal.

This is yet another example of the systematic coverup of the flu epidemic by Chinese officials. It should be clear to anybody with a brain that this means these exposed people are clearly suffering from normal symptoms of their flu exposure. We are also being assured that there is no human to human transmission. Okay! At any rate, Doomer Doug finds the admission these exposed people are suffering normal symptoms disturbing. One would assume normal symptoms to flu exposure would be high fever, coughing and things like that. The Chinese government has as usual decided the policy of the cover up, misdirection and withholding of the actual data to be the way to go. The Chinese government routinely uses these methods when dealing with unpleasant facts.

Doomer Doug will only say these exposed people are now obviously exhibiting “normal symptoms” in response to their flu exposure. While Doomer Doug is not sure what that means, it doesn’t sound very good.


Since I wrote the blog entry two days ago, China’s flu epidemic has gone critical.

People need to understand this flu had its epicenter in the eastern coastal city of Shanghai in late February and March. There have now been a total of 120 cases in China as of today. Further, the geographic progression has now taken a very disturbing trend as of today. The flu started in Shanghai. It has spread north along the coast in the last three weeks. It has spread to Bejing several hundred miles inland from the East Coast of China. It has spread south from Shanghai to the Fujan area. Finally, it is now confirmed in the CENTRAL CHINESE AREA OF HUNAN. This is a HUGE dot. The flu virus has now spread over much of the east coast of China. It has now spread inland to Bejing. It has now spread inland, towards the west, into Hunan. We are talking hundreds of miles here.

If Shanghai is compared to Washington, D.C. Bejing is New York City. Fujan is Georgia. Hunan is Saint Louis. You see my point here. Don’t be misled by “only” 120 cases. It is very clear the actual number of cases are being under-counted by Chinese authorities. If you place a pin on the map showing Hunan in the west, and you place a pin on Taiwan in the east you will get a clearer view of why the flu battle is now lost in China. China has a big holiday coming up on May 1st. This holiday means TENS OF MILLIONS OF CHINESE will travel all over their country. This will spread the bird flu into all areas of China.

One more thing. It is appalling to see the Chinese health officials STILL DENYING the reality of human to human flu transmission at this late date. You cannot get the kind of geometric progression of cases without human to human transmission. You can’t get the kind of geographic progression from Shanghai to Bejing, to Hunan in the west and Taiwan in the east without human to human transmission. It is IMPOSSIBLE for the flu virus to have spread over such a wide area in less than one month without human to human airborne vector transmission.

At any rate, Doomer Doug expects the flu virus to spread all over China by June 1st at the absolute latest.