CHINA FLU GOING CRITICAL MASS 4-27-2013

Since I wrote the blog entry two days ago, China’s flu epidemic has gone critical.

People need to understand this flu had its epicenter in the eastern coastal city of Shanghai in late February and March. There have now been a total of 120 cases in China as of today. Further, the geographic progression has now taken a very disturbing trend as of today. The flu started in Shanghai. It has spread north along the coast in the last three weeks. It has spread to Bejing several hundred miles inland from the East Coast of China. It has spread south from Shanghai to the Fujan area. Finally, it is now confirmed in the CENTRAL CHINESE AREA OF HUNAN. This is a HUGE dot. The flu virus has now spread over much of the east coast of China. It has now spread inland to Bejing. It has now spread inland, towards the west, into Hunan. We are talking hundreds of miles here.

If Shanghai is compared to Washington, D.C. Bejing is New York City. Fujan is Georgia. Hunan is Saint Louis. You see my point here. Don’t be misled by “only” 120 cases. It is very clear the actual number of cases are being under-counted by Chinese authorities. If you place a pin on the map showing Hunan in the west, and you place a pin on Taiwan in the east you will get a clearer view of why the flu battle is now lost in China. China has a big holiday coming up on May 1st. This holiday means TENS OF MILLIONS OF CHINESE will travel all over their country. This will spread the bird flu into all areas of China.

One more thing. It is appalling to see the Chinese health officials STILL DENYING the reality of human to human flu transmission at this late date. You cannot get the kind of geometric progression of cases without human to human transmission. You can’t get the kind of geographic progression from Shanghai to Bejing, to Hunan in the west and Taiwan in the east without human to human transmission. It is IMPOSSIBLE for the flu virus to have spread over such a wide area in less than one month without human to human airborne vector transmission.

At any rate, Doomer Doug expects the flu virus to spread all over China by June 1st at the absolute latest.

 

FLU EPIDEMIC 4-25-13

Doomer Doug is becoming more concerned about the Chinese flu situation. For starters, there is a Chinese military officer running around claiming it is all an American plot. Chinese government officials are always in a race between corruption and incompetence. The world is going to pay dearly for the usual level of stupidity the Chinese government shows. China has made several mistakes already with this flu. First, they assumed it was a bird flu. It is not. Next, they assumed you had to be exposed to poultry to get it. You do not. Forty percent of the total cases have had no contact with poultry. The large majority of the birds culled do not have this virus in them. Ergo, it is not a bird flu, nor do you get it from close contact with poultry. These two false assumption have hamstrung the global response to this potential global flu pandemic. We can expect nothing less than incompetence from China’s official response. People all over the world will die due to Chinese incompetence. After all, we have a long list of Chinese negligence related to toxic products.

The next issue is a few comments on disease vector. The flu virus is mostly spread by being sprayed into the air by a person coughing. The flu virus can remain suspended in an aerosol droplet form for up to twenty four hours. You can also get it from physical contact with objects contaminated by secretions from infected people. The debate over human to human transmission is over. We are now very clearly in a human to human transmission mode.

The other issues in my mind today are geographic progression and geometric progression. The lethal flu virus is maintaining a kill rate of 20 percent. It is now firmly established all over eastern China, northeast China, and Beijing more towards the center. It will now infill the blank areas between Shanghai on the coast, all the way up to the North Korean border. Further, the flu virus has now gotten to Taiwan. The virus is spreading widely throughout China, Taiwan.

The final issue is geometric progression. When I take a look at the case numbers, the increases of the reported cases on a daily and weekly basis, I can see the horsemen coming. I do not assume the Chinese government is giving truthful and accurate numbers. The public numbers are likely to be between ten percent and twenty percent of the actual numbers. If you through in the large numbers of sick people not showing symptoms, well you get the idea.

The “official reported cases of flu” in China were 14 on April 5th, 2013. 9 days later on the 14th they were 51. Three days later on the 17th the reported cases were 79. The reported cases for the 25th are 120. Again, the real numbers are likely much, much higher.

What I see with these numbers is it took the last part of February, all of March, as well as 5 days into April to get the first 14 cases. It took 9 days to go from 14 to 51. It took 3 days to get to 79. It took 8 days to get to 120. This is for China only. This is for officially government reported cases in China only. We are off the grid here folks.

When I wrote the previous blog entry, there were no cases in Taiwan. There were no cases in several of the major Chinese cities in the north east and north central. There were less reported cases.

The flu epidemic is now here in China and Taiwan. I think it will continue spreading throughout China and Taiwan.  The flu is coming to the USA. it is only a matter of time.

Flu Pandemic 4-21-2013

China has always been where the great disease epidemics begin. The “Asian Soup” is composed of water, pig, human, chicken, duck and other animals fecal material. It is from this we get the bacteria and viruses needed to lay the foundation for pandemics.

There are several facts related to China and disease. The epicenter for the current flu is Shanghai. Shanghai is where several thousand dead pigs were found floating in the river Shanghai uses for fresh water. The Chinese government assures us there is no connection. ROTFLMAO Let me just say people have died, and will continue to die due to Chinese health authorities covering up the truth.

We now have a flu outbreak that has gone from a total of 3 cases to 103 in the last 3 weeks. The death total is now 20. This is a 20 per cent kill rate. The thing people need to understand about how diseases work is this. A bacteria or virus doesn’t want to kill off the infected animal or human. Diseases, like Ebola, with a high 90 percent kill rate, will burn out quickly. A flu virus that has a 20 percent kill rate will continue mutating, infecting merrily along. My point being the fact that only 20 percent of people infected are dying is an extremely bad sign. The fact that nearly 80 percent of the total deaths are people over 50 years old tells me the flu virus is mutating to increase lethality. The get well and leave patients are currently young people and young children. The virus is mutating to be able to kill them. It just hasn’t perfected the ability to overwhelm young and healthy responsive immune systems.

I am seeing three things here in terms of a global pandemic.

One: The disease is mutating. The disease is killing 20 percent of the people it is infecting. It is using the other 80 percent as a fabrication factory to increase effectiveness. We are seeing people with no symptoms.

Two: We are seeing the start of the mutation process needed for sustained human to human flu virus transmission. We are also seeing the mutation process for vector change to either contact or airborne.

Three: We are seeing the rapid spread of the flu virus in China. This is very bad since it means the virus has been mutating, changing and spreading for quite a while. Do not focus on the numbers of cases. Focus on the percentage of increase. 3 cases to 103 cases in three weeks is a MASSIVE rate of increase. It is a rate of increase of  OVER THREE THOUSAND PERCENT. Now if that rate of increase is sustained for another month or two, well you get the idea.

We are on the edge here, gang.