This is a repost of an essay I wrote about SARS for gold-eagle.com back in 2003. This was 10 years ago. We dodged the bullet back then. Doomer Doug has always taken the view he gets the trends correctly. The issue of my “accuracy” has always been related to the timing. The powers that be have simply manipulated the system to prevent the kind of collapses I have long predicted. All things will happen in their own time I think. SARS didn’t turn out to be the kind of disaster I thought it would be back in 2003. It is now ten years later. We shall see if my decade old predictions for SARS turn out to apply to China’s new killer flu.
I’ve been reserving my thoughts on SARS to posts over at http://www.timebomb2000.com for several reasons. One of them is, despite what some people e-mail me, I do try to back up some of my wilder accusations with some semblance of facts. Really. The other reason is I’ve been waiting for some cover from the mainstream press on this one. The press whores botched SARS coverage, like they have economic issues, for the usual reasons. None of which matters now in the slightest. Still, when I write the kinds of things I’m going to say in this essay, I do prefer to at least have one or two of the less whorish mainstream press types around.
So, I’ve waited until now to talk about SARS because I clearly understood from day one exactly what was at stake here. What’s at stake with SARS isn’t just people dying. What’s at stake is the entire global economic system dependent upon the free flow of people and goods. SARS is an economic disease as much as a respiratory one. SARS not only causes difficulty in breathing for human beings. It causes difficulty in tourism, air travel, hotels, conventions and trade shows for the global economy. In other words, SARS is quite effectively shutting down Asia to any kind of people movement. The unanswered question with SARS is whether it will spread to shutting down movement of physical goods. One third of all manufactured items come from China. One documented case of someone getting SARS from touching something made in China and global manufacturing will simply grind to a halt.
SARS stands for sudden acute respiratory syndrome and is thought to have originated in Red China next to Hong Kong. Russian scientists are on record as saying it is a bio-weapon run amok. Other, more likely in my opinion, theories believe it came out of the China soup. The China soup, remember the Hong Kong flu scare of 1997?, is that lethal mixture of pig, duck, chicken, human, and in SAR’s case, reputedly shrimp feces, that generates Chinese flu strains. Swirling around this unsanitary mixture, various viruses sometimes leap from animals to man and cause global pandemics. The last time that happened was the Spanish flu of 1919. The result was millions of people died worldwide. We had the global pandemic of Hong Kong flu in 1968 and the swine flu fiasco of the mid seventies. The world is long overdue for a major flu pandemic.
The world is going to pay dearly for the collapse in healthcare in Red China, Africa, South America and Russia. The Red Chinese in particular can fairly be said to have botched SARS so badly that criminal negligence doesn’t begin to cover their official response. SARS has now spread to 25 countries, killed 248 people and is officially said to have 4300 cases. One of the reasons I held off was due to the low number of total cases. My opinion now is the official figure is fantasy. RED CHINA ALONE NOW HAS 4300 SARS CASES IN MY OPINION. The reason I can make that kind of radical statement is no one, especially not the Red Chinese health authorities, have any idea what is going on out in the boondocks of China. 90 million Chinese wander around their country looking for work. How many thousands of SARS cases are just floating around the Chinese countryside? We won’t know until the bodies start piling up.
The global economic impact of SARS will be quite serious for Asia. My judgment is I do not possibly see how we can avoid a global SARS pandemic. We have no way of making a vaccine, since we only understand 78% of what is in the SARS virus. We have no clinical way of treating the virus effectively. We have no clear idea of how it is spread. We have no clear idea of how to prevent it being spread. We have no clear idea of why dozens of health care workers have gotten SARS even though they were using standard aseptic protocols. In other words, we don’t know very much at all about SARS. Once the hysteria spreads, the global economy will simply grind to a halt. Hong Kong retail sales are down 80%. Singapore tourism is down 70%. Asian air lines are canceling dozens of flights. The list of economic casualties is a lengthy one. And what can the health officials tell the businessman about when people will feel safe enough to return to China, Hong Kong or the rest of Asia? Weeks, months, years? No one knows and that is my point.
Can you imagine the impact on say Hong Kong if retail sales, or air travel, or tourism permanently declines 50% for six months. SARS may go away, only to leave a shattered economy in its wake. Morgan Stanley is now saying they expect Red China’s economy to decline 2% this quarter. Care to contemplate the global economic implications of that statement? Know anyone who plans to go anywhere near Toronto, Canada anytime soon? What do you think http://www.gold-eagle.com readers will happen to “globalism” when the World Health Organization has travel advisories on most of the major world cities? Deluded rants from doomer doug?, or the evening news six months from now. You tell me!
One of the tests I’ve been using is a estimated case numbers per moving weekly average in April. The list is over at http://www.rense.com and said that 3,000 cases would be known by such and such a day in April and 6000 cases by the end of April. That list has been right on for a global pandemic to begin sometime in May. Considering the lies of Red China, we have no real way of knowing exactly where we are on SARS right now. My personal opinion is it will continue to grow over the spring and summer, before turning into a true global pandemic during the normal flu season next winter. Given the large numbers of people with suppressed immune systems, i.e.. AIDS, elderly, etc., I see no way of avoiding a higher death rate than the suspect official rate of 5%. Once SARS gets out into the general population of the advanced countries, people with suppressed immune systems are going to be in trouble. Once SARS gets out into the general populations of countries without much of a health care system at all: well, imagine how an African with AIDS would fare once they got SARS. The only real question is have the dikes been breached without anyone noticing. The answer to that, in my opinion, is yes they have and the tidal wave is headed towards us.
I believe that spring 2003 will not be remembered for the War in Iraq. The only historically significant issue with Mr. Bush and his war will be the rape and pillage of history. The looting of artifacts will be what people remember about the Iraq War in 1000 years. Nor will it be remembered for the sour economy, or even the idiocy passing for prime time programming on American television. I think future historians will make the determination the Red Chinese leadership was so greedy, arrogant and incompetent that they squandered the one chance the world had in dealing with SARS. Future historians will look back at the results of that Red Chinese negligence and see it as the main story of 2003. Mene, Mene, Tekel, Uparsin wrote the divine hand on the walls of Babylon as the Imperial Lords of that era got drunk using the sacred cups. The days of our civilization have been numbered and our cup is now full. Our civilization has been weighed on the scales of justice and found wanting. Our civilization will be given to others. Isn’t it truly ironic that as America beats its chest in triumph over Iraq, an unknown virus prepares to destroy the foundations of the global economy and take our vaunted military with it. I am watching the chaos theory unfold in all its glory. The Globalist Empire done in by Red Chinese shrimp shit and the virus it spawned. Who needs reality television when reality is like this. The SARS battle will be won or lost in Red China. We have already lost there. The choice is between pandemic or globalism. Business as usual means a global SARS epidemic. Business not as usual means a global economic recession/depression. Maybe Mr. Sender is correct and SARS is some kind of Chinese counter move to Iraq. Too bad nobody told the virus to stay in the bottle.
26 April 2003