EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT SYRIA PART TWO
BY DOUG MCINTOSH 3-14-2018
Events in Syria are now collapsing into chaos, with the situation changing on an hourly basis it seems. Since I wrote these essays, Russia has essentially thrown down the gauntlet and made clear statements related to any further US intervention in Syria. Turkey is now bombing inside both Iraq and Syria. Assad Junior is moving both regular Syrian military forces, as well as his armed miltia to directly confront Turkey when it moves towards Manjbi after the genocide is complete in Afrin. Multiple reports indicate the Al Qaida, ISIS, and even Chinese Uighr Muslims in Erdogan’s “milita forces,” are raping and murdering their way through conquered Kurdish villages.
Several good links for information are here.
In my first essay I dealt with the general historical context of modern Syria, and also listed various factors that resulted in the current Syrian civil war scenario. In this second essay, I will deal with Turkey’s leader Erdogan and his invasion of Syria, why he did it, and what he wants out of it. I will also deal with who is doing what, and why they are doing it.
First, my readers need to understand one fact above all else. The one fact is, in my opinion, Turkey’s leader, Erdogan is bat poop crazy. The reason I make this rather harsh statement is Erdogan is a man who thinks he is on a mission from God/Allah. The mission is to restore the historical Ottoman Empire. However crazy we think this is, I assure you Erdogan is totally committed to this Ottoman Imperial restoration. Now, when I am talking about a “restored Ottoman Empire,” I am really talking about Erdogan’s vision, and the actions he is taking to do it. The historical Ottoman Empire was based in Turkey and eventually came to be very powerful. It is true that the Ottoman Empire by 1917 came to control Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia as we call them today. It is also true that the term, “Gate of Vienna,” refer to the Ottoman Empire attacking the Hapsburg Empire in 1683. The date September 11th is related to this attack. The Ottomans also conquered Yugoslavia. The reason for the 1998 conflict between NATO forces and the Serbs can be drawn in a direct line to Ottoman actions. Kosovo was a problem that began with a battle in 1300, and ended with a battle in 1998. In Europe past is present and current problems all have historical roots. It is the same thing in the Middle East, as the US has found to its sorrow. So, my main point is in Erdogan we have a man who has a vision, and that vision involves restoring the Ottoman Empire, presumably to its greatest extent. It is that vision, dear reader that is going to shake the entire Middle East to its core. It is that vision that resulted in Turkey invading Northern Syria. Erdogan says he is invading Syria to prevent “Kurdish terrorists,” from creating an independent Kurdish state in Syria that threatens Turkey. In reality, his true goal is to annex Syria into his restored Ottoman Empire. Erdogan is also using “proxy forces,” combined with regular Turkish military units, to do so. Another key fact in the entire Syrian Civil War scenario is the use of proxy forces. Everybody in Syria, the Russians, the Americans, NATO, and Iran are using proxies as pawns in the Great Game. The reason is to exhibit the famous statement, “plausible denial,” I also think both NATO and the USA got burned by their proxy forces, especially by the Al Qaida and ISIS forces. At any rate, in order to understand what is now going on in Syria, you need to understand that various agendas are now in play. Turkey’s agenda is to annex Northern Syria, with the idea they will eventually incorporate all of Syria into Turkey. Further, all of Erdogan’s actions must be viewed as trying to achieve his goal of a restored Ottoman Empire.
In order to do that, Erdogan is quite willing to roll the dice. He is willing to take great risks. The reason being he understands that if he is truly trying to restore the historical Ottoman Empire, which he is, then he must risk all. Erdogan is quite willing to risk his membership in NATO. He is quite willing to risk a broader war in Syria. He is quite willing to fight the USA, and Assad Junior, and Iran, and even Russia. Erdogan is even making noises about invading a fellow NATO member Greece. Like I said, whatever anybody thinks about Erdogan, and I really do think he is Bat Poop Crazy, the man has a vision. He thinks this vision comes from God/Allah and he is willing to do what it takes to implement that vision. The fact he may trigger a regional Middle East War, or unleash a level of chaos a sane man would back off from, well Erdogan simply doesn’t care at this point. He may go down in flames, and he may crash and burn the entire Middle East, but he is going to try for the brass ring, whatever the results are.
Erdogan has stated he plans to conquer Afrin. The fact he may unleash a Kurdish massacre doesn’t bother him. The fact his proxy forces are a group of Al Qaida, ISIS, and assorted Turkish thugs doesn’t bother him. If they rape, and kill and destroy Kurds in Syria, this doesn’t concern him. He is going to take Afrin. He is going to do what it takes to do so, and the consequences be damned. If Erdogan has to leave piles of Kurdish corpses, including Kurdish civilians, he will do that. Erdogan is going to create a Turkish “sphere of influence” covering his border with Syria, from the Med in the west, to the Euphrates in the east. Once he does that, he will then directly engage Assad Junior and his forces, likely backed by Russia. When Erdogan turns east from Afrin, he will attack Manjbi, which is where the US forces are. And when Erdogan does that, he will shatter NATO, unleash a regional war, and force the USA to engage him in self-defense.
I think this is the general context of what Turkey is now doing in Syria. They clearly intend to take over all of Syria, and if they have to fight everybody else to do so, then Erdogan will do just that. Of course, that brings us to the cold, hard reality of exactly what that means. Turkey has so far avoided direct combat with Assad Junior’s military forces. The reason being Assad Junior has cynically taken advantage of Turkey’s invasion to settle some scores of his own.
Syria, as the situation is on March 14,Th 2018 is a shattered country. If the military mission of any military is to protect the lives and property of its citizens, as well as the territorial integrity of the state, then Assad Junior has failed miserably. The pre-civil war borders of Syria no longer exist. This one fact now determines all actions Assad Junior is now taking, and will take in the future. You see, dear reader, Assad Junior is also a man on a mission. His mission is to restore the pre-civil war borders of Syria. It is this fundamental conflict between a Turkish leader, who wants to annex Syria, and a Syrian leader who wants to restore Syria, that will unleash the firestorm I am predicting. Assad Junior is now engaged in a massive effort, some 15,000 combat veteran ground forces, with Russian air support, to retake his capital city of Damascus. He is attacking the eastern suburbs of Damascus and plans to exert control over it. Assad Junior is also attacking west of the Turkish forces in Northern Syria in order to reclaim the area between Afrin/Aleppo and the Med. He is also attacking east to the Euphrates River to restore the original Syrian and Iraq border. Finally, he is attacking south, both east and west in order to restore his border with Israel, on the Golan Heights, and with Jordan. While Erdogan has been conquering much of Northern Syria, Assad Junior has been restoring his borders to the east, to the northwest, and to the southeast and southwest. Once that is completed, Assad Junior is going to go after the Turks in the north. When that happens, all hell is going to break out, and all the various players are going to get sucked into the free for all.
I am saying that the current context of the entire “Syrian situation,” is based on a Turkish leader, Erdogan, who is trying to annex Northern Syria, and eventually all of Syria, into his restored Ottoman Empire. He is facing Assad Junior who is trying to restore the original, pre 2011 Syrian borders, It is this conflict, in my opinion, that will define what is going to happen in Syria over the next few weeks and months. It is the definitive example of being between a rock and a hard place. Syria, and eventually the entire world, is going to impale itself on an Erdogan who seeks to conquer Syria, and an Assad Junior who seeks to prevent that conquest. Of course, Israel and Jerusalem, as well as Iran and Hezzbollah will also be thrown into that toxic mix of competing visions for Syria. In order to explain that, I would require another essay, so I will just mention it and move on.
We are now on the verge of the Syrian abyss. The two main players are Assad Junior, the leader of Syria, and Erdogan, the leader of Turkey. The reason I am predicting disaster is because Russia, the USA, NATO, Iran and Hezzbollah, the Kurds, and eventually Israel will all get sucked into the mess. The reason being that having proxies is a two edged sword. The reason the “big boys” like proxies is they can be pushed out of the airplane at 30,000 feet with nobody the wiser. The reason the “big boys,” hate proxies is they can storm the pilot’s cabin and crash the plane. You roll the dice, and you takes your chances.
I think it is clear that soon Assad Junior will have to respond, as in military response, as in shooting at the Turks. I think it is clear Turkey will start shooting back when that happens. At that point, delusional fanatic that he is, Erdogan will request NATO combat intervention, like under the famous clause 5. When that happens, the result will either be the collapse of the NATO military alliance, or direct combat between both NATO forces, and US forces with Assad Junior. Following my thought stream here, we come to a situation where that will result in Assad junior’s allies; namely, Iran, Hezzbollah, and Russia coming to his aid. Putin has made it very, very clear, in his statements on the British response to the “murder” of the Russian dissidents, he will brook no fecal material. Putin has further stated very plainly he not only has a credible nuclear force, but he is quite willing to use it. Finally, Putin has made it quite clear that he fully supports a unified, and that is a key word, unified, Syria. Again, a unified Syria is a Syria restored to its pre-civil war borders, and under the control of Assad junior. This puts Russia in direct opposition to Turkey, the EU, NATO and the USA, who want to partition Syria. Well, Vlad the Impaler is saying he won’t go for that, and intends to make sure that doesn’t happen, and will use military force to prevent it. Putin’s General made the statement that any further attacks on Damascus by anybody, US coalition forces, Israel, or Turkey will be met with force, especially if they threaten Russian lives I wonder why the US coalition, when they bombed the Russian mercs, thought they would get a pass on it. Putin is playing a deep game here in Syria. He views Syria in the context of the NATO betrayal when the former Soviet Union collapsed. The entire Syrian situation must also be viewed in the context of NATO’s expansion to the east. NATO is now deploying combat troops directly on the Russian borders with the Baltic States, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Further, NATO has deployed troops to Poland, put missile batteries in Romania, and the final insult of putting US Naval ships into the Black Sea. Putin regards the Black Sea as not the Romans “mare nostrum, or our sea, but as a Russian bath tub. Of all the things that NATO has done to enrage Moscow, sending in US fleet destroyers to insolently cruise around next to the Russian Black Sea Fleet, is the worst by far. So, on the edges of the “Syrian Situation,” we have the NATO eastward deployment situation, along with the Black Sea situation, all of which Putin views in terms of the “Ukrainian situation”. The reason I am saying the “Syrian situation’ is so bad, is because it is in Syria where all the various threads of Russian, US and NATO confrontation come together. Syria is the sword upon which all the players are going to eventually impale themselves, whether they want to or not.
The bottom line of all this scheming, deploying and posturing is we may, similar to World War One, simply stumble into a war. Whatever the various players are planning for, and however they intend things to turn out, we are now in the Twilight zone, or perhaps we should think in terms of the famous Mr. Murphy. Mr. Murphy is the reality that everything that can go wrong will go wrong. Syria is now beyond intentions, or expected results in my opinion. I think things are now in play that once unleashed take on a life of their own.
Finally, the Kurds are involved. The thing my readers need to understand is that the Kurds are not a monolithic group. The “Kurds” are divided into several competing groups, all with different ideologies, agendas and goals. The Kurds now in Afrin are, more or less, Marxists. They derive from a Kurdish leader now in a Turkish prison, and are dedicated to the creation of a Kurdish state inside of Turkey. Erdogan does have reasonable concerns about “Kurdish terrorists.” Unfortunately, Erdogan is quite willing to throw out the baby with the bathwater. The Kurds number roughly 50 million worldwide. The Kurds live in Iran, Northern Iraq, Southeastern Turkey, and Syria among other places. The Kurds also live in Europe, with one million in Germany alone. It is almost certain, and has in fact already happened with the Turkish mosques being attacked in Berlin, that the Turkish and Kurdish conflict centered in Northern Syria will spread to Europe first, and eventually to the USA, which also has some Kurds living here. The next phase of the Syrian conflict has gone from “over there,” to “over here.”
At any rate, a history of the Kurds is beyond the scope of this essay. I will make the point that the USA has betrayed the Kurds twice. The first time, under the famous war criminal Henry Kissinger, was when we brokered a deal between Saddam and the Iranian Shah in 1975. We pulled our support for them, betrayed and abandoned them, and let Saddam kill them in droves. The second betrayal was in 1991 after Desert Storm. Again, we betrayed, and then abandoned both the Kurds and the Shia. We led them on, got an armed uprising out of them, and then let Saddam’s helicopter gunships machine gun, and rocket them without let up. So, the Kurds, even though we used them as proxies to fight ISIS, never really trusted us. The result was that when Turkey invaded Northern Syria on January 20th, 2018, the Kurds immediately ceased fighting ISIS, and started moving to defend Afrin. Of course, once Erdogan got wind of thousands of armed, combat veteran Kurdish Peshmerga, heading from Eastern Syria, and Aleppo to Afrin, he started screaming at both the USA and its coalition, and NATO to stop them. Again, everything is now in play. When people ask me what one of the results of Erdogan’s invasion of Syria was, I tell them it gave ISIS a second chance. ISIS is now expanding its Euphrates River zone because the fight against it has ceased, and the reason for that is the Kurds left for Afrin, and the reason they did that was Erdogan plans to conquer it, and likely, or at least his Al Qaida and ISIS proxy troops plan to, murder and rape all the Kurds, civilian or not, they can find. Like I said, current events in Syria are like a rock thrown into a pond. You never really quite know how far the ripples will spread. One would not think that Turkey invading Syria would result in the salvation of ISIS, but it has.
Finally, I am saying that whatever the players intend for Syria, the 2nd law of Thermodynamics, the one called Entropy, is now fully in play. Entropy states that the tendency is for decay. I call it the teenager’s room syndrome. One of the reasons I personally find the theory of Evolution to be so ridiculous is because it violates Entropy. Entropy states that if you clean a teenager’s room, within one week it will look like a cyclone hit it. Evolution states not only will the teenager’s room not decay, it will evolve. Evolution is like reducing a Ford Truck to its individual parts, throwing it into a garage and then expecting it to put itself back together. /The ideal is a violation of natural science and simply ridiculous. Syria is now in the exact same situation. It will be put together again in my opinion. It will be Assad Junior, backed by Russia, Iran and Hezzbollah who will do it. The Kurds, well the Kurds will get screwed again, as they usually are, although I think they will land on their feet, more or less.
Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
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