Saudi Arabia and Quatar are at each other’s throats right now. There is no possibility that Saudi Arabia and Quatar can take any kind of unified action against Iran. The other thing is Russia has now guaranteed the 2005 Kurdistan borders already agreed to by the Shia Baghdad Central government. Further, Russia has now guaranteed the Kurds access to a pipeline that goes north into Russia, and not west into Turkey. The Shia Central government has just moved to within striking distance of a key pipeline facility from Kurdistan into Turkey.
As for Iran, gang, well Tillerson and Trump can shoot their mouths off all they want to, but it makes no difference on the ground in Iraq. Possession is nine tenths of the law. Iran now controls Iraq everywhere except the 2005 Kurdistan, which again is now guaranteed by Russia.
The “deal” is pretty clear to me, Housecarl. Iran “gets Iraq” either directly under control of the Shia PMU militia, or the Shia “national military,” or the Shia Central government. Russia is telling Iran to back off from trying to take Kurdistan itself.
This is all “spheres of influence” and “buffer zone” level of diplomacy. The Russians are HUGE on buffer zones, which is why they are so enraged that NATO moved east to the Russian borders after Reagan and Bush Senior conned Gorbachev.
Russia is now moving south into Kurdistan in Iraq to counter the NATO move east into the Baltic States, Poland and Romania. Russia has also moved west into the former Uraine.
The “great game” has been going on between Russia and the West for several centuries now, involving the Crimea” ie “charge of the light brigade” in the 1850’s to fighting over Afghanistan with the British. Russia is looking to get a warm water port on either the Indian Ocean, or the Persian Gulf, which they have now done.
Trump and Tillerson have been outplayed by both Russia and Iran.
Finally, looking at naval bang you now have Russia with a naval base in the Black Sea on Crimea, as well as a naval base in Syria, and the deal they made to take over the former British naval base on Cyprus. In addition to all that, Russia now has full access to Basra in Southern Iraq. Russia cut a deal with Iran. Iran cut a deal with Russia.
NATO, THE EU, THE USA HAVE NO DEAL IN IRAQ AT ALL. WE HAVE LOST IRAQ TO THE RUSSIANS AND THE IRANIANS. NOW THAT SYRIA IS RESTORED, MINUS SOME FUTURE FIGHTING TO KEEP THE KURDS IN LINE, THE TRUE NATURE OF THE DECISIVE POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, DIPLOMATIC AND MILITARY DEFEAT THE USA HAS SUFFERED IN IRAQ IS NOW CLEAR TO EVERYBODY ELSE OTHER THAN TRUMP, TILLERSON, THE EU AND NATO.
It hurts when you get your ass kicked. Trump the deal maker simply doesn’t understand the “Great Game” in the Middle East, as played by both Russia and Iran.