Here are my thoughts, over the last day or so, about the Orovile Dam and spillway situation.
It’s called preventive maintenance for a reason. The “investigation” will find out “they” knew about the potential problem for months/years. It will find out “they” couldn’t find the funds, or yada yada yada.
It will find out they are now looking at a potential catastrophic dam collapse, or at minimum serious economic damage from spillage problems, or lack of water because they have to dump it over the defective spillways.
Yep, GOVERNOR MOONBEAM IN ACTION. Government never seems to spend money on routine maintenance, and always waits till a disaster is nearly upon us before they do anything.
Assuming you need dry weather to work on dams, well they just had a drought for several years, which would mean it was cheapness, stupidity and corruption that prevented repair work from being done.
The local FOX News Reporter just said the lake is now only 96 percent full and that it is no longer flowing over the spillways since it isn’t 100 percent. Um, well in about 48 to 72 hours a MASSIVE RAIN FRONT is going to move into the entire area and dump a large amount of rain into the entire system. A water storage system at Lake Oroville that is already 96 percent full. So, gang how much rain/water/time will it take for the lake to fill 4 percent and start the whole process over again? Ah, “they” are going to keep the overflow/spillways going to further drain the lake, EXCEPT THEY WANT TO REPAIR THE SPILLWAYS/DAM ETC.
You can flow the water, or you can repair the spillways, but you can’t do both. And forget about the rock dumping BS. AS I SAW WITH THE MOUNT SAINT HELEN’S DEBRIS FLOW INTO THE RIVERS ALL THE ROCKS ARE DOING IS PRE POSITIONING PROJECTILES TO BE HURLED DOWNSTREAM TO DESTROY BRIDGES, ROADS ETC.
Once the lake starts to empty, which it will once the V cuts happen, the rocks will be like a potato in a potato catapult. Yep, if you can’t stop the lake from filling up again, and you can’t drain it fast enough to matter, and all you are doing with the rocks is filling up the magazine to push them downstream, at speed, causing heavy damage, well then you hold a press conference saying all is well. You have the media people make idiotic statements about the lake “only” being 96 percent full, which while true is deceptive.
I am waiting for the Saturday press conference when the lake is at 104 percent full, the Spillway has a V cut in it, and rocks are headed towards Sacramento at 34 miles per hour. Yep, “they” just have no idea of what to do because it is now a done deal with the V Cut, the lake filling up and the rocks, oh they still think they can fill the hole, the hole they said couldn’t happen, yes that hole, with rocks. Sheesh, like I said the political class in California is going down hard over this ClusterF#%%%%.
Rising snow levels mean increased snow melt combined with light to moderate rain in the 48 to 72 hour time frame. In the four to five day time frame, rivers rising, snow level dropping and rain increasing. In the six to seven day time frame, rivers rising, rain increasing, snow levels dropping, widespead flooding and pretty much all storage systems at 100 percent plus capacity. Water pressure on physical dams etc at maximum, further damaging concrete etc that has now been stressed for the last several weeks.
Did I leave anything out of that analysis? Yep, there is now no way to avoid spillway failure at the Oroville dam within the next seven to ten day time period, and likely sooner than that.
The falling rain is only one factor here. Up here in Portland, back in 1996, we had rain plus snow melt. It is the two of them combined that gives you the massive flooding.
Snow levels are going to be at 7 to 8 thousand feet the next few days, and that means every bit of snow below that will start to melt rapidly. Yep, California is toast. The continued draining of the lake merely means the level of damage on the spillways is maintained, or even increased. What is going to happen when they have to open it up all the way once the storms get here, especially after keeping it going for the last several days full bore, more or less?
Nah, one of the pictures in the near future will be one looking like the 1972 Teton dam spillway failure, where the dam is still there, but the entire left side is gone. The spillway is gone. The hill holding the spillway is gone. The erosion has cut everything away from the dam standing forlornly there, naked and abandoned.
We are looking at an earthern dam, with tons of water pressure on it, all the way from the base to the top, for the last several weeks, and likely scouring going on where the earth meets the bedrock. AND NO REBAR IN THE CONCRETE APPARENTLY!
So, I don’t think the “don’t worry, be happy” mantra is going to work here.
Repeat after Doomer Doug, SNOW MELT IS NOT YOUR FRIEND; SNOWMELT IS NOT YOUR FRIEND.
The snow is melting right now and flowing downhill towards the lake even if it isn’t raining now. I seriously doubt this 100,000 outflow is going to be a factor given all the snowmelt going on right now, followed by rain the next few days.
AGAIN, SNOW MELT IS NOT YOUR FRIEND!!!
Um, “they” are saying “they” plan to keep the outflow at 100,000 whatever. I thought I saw somewhere that the current inflow is 37,000 whatever. Ergo, “they” are trying to lower the water to 850 feet, some 50 feet, by not draining 100,000 whatever, but really 63,000 whatever, cubic feet. Next, we know the entire upstream water system for Lake Orville is also backed up, and most of the ENTIRE state of California, all the dams, etc on that big list.
Now my question is simple. If “they” are saying “they” can lower the Lake to 850 feet, ie down 50, based on a release of 100,000 whatever, but in reality can release less water than that. So, Thursday shows up with rain, and even more snowmelt that forces them to increase the upstream inflow to Lake Oroville.
Gang, I will predict that the news conference on Thursday, where everybody expects them to announce the lake level is 850 and okay, will instead suddenly admit, they weren’t actually releasing at a rate of 100,000 whatever, because they “forgot” to subtract the water coming in from upstream. Or is Doomer Doug being too cynical here?
The other thing is I think the Snow melt is ongoing and even though it is not raining right now, a large amount of water is inbound to Lake Oroville from the snowmelt that is going on, and will continue to go on for another week or two or so.
Yep, California is screwed.
Am I missing anything here?
Okay, you want a dam collapse, well DOOMER DOUG WILL SHOW YOU A DAM COLLAPSE.
This is from the May 2015 movie “San Andreas,” the one with the Rock playing the LA fireguy who deserts his post, runs around Southern California till he finds his daughter in LA. On the other hand, well this is the mother lode of dam collapse computer generated in style.
Hmm, well if “they” are saying “they” are reducing the level of the lake by 4 inches per hour, then this is eight feet per 24 hours. 5.5 feet equals 66 inches, which is roughly 16 hours worth.
Assuming the water will show up sometime in the Weds time frame, or 36 hours from now: 24 hours to Tuesday 5 pm, plus another 12 hours to Weds 5 am, plus the 5.5 feet they have right now means 5.5 feet plus 12 feet equals about a 18 foot decline by early Weds morning, say 5 am ish.
Well, even if you add in another few feet in, you are still looking at roughly 875 feet still in there, with the inflow likely increasing hour by hour as the rain increases.
The math simply isn’t there for them to avoid massive water releases. And we all know what will happen when they go full bore with the releases. The system will simply erode away and likely collapse.
Right now they are lowering the lake at the rate of 63,000 whatever, after subtracting the 37,000 inflow, from the 100,000. This assumes “they” aren’t lying to us, which is certainly possible.
I will remind everybody the fatal blow is going to be the COMBINATION of rain and heavy snow melt of all snow below 8,000 feet for at least a 48 to 72 hour period of time from Weds onwards. The ground is saturated. The storage systems are full. The snow is melting and the rain is falling. This is a recipe, just like in Portland back in February of 1996, for massive flooding, which we did indeed get. Again, all the water that falls into the large watershed is going to rapidly flow into Lake Orovile and they have no effective way to get rid of it. I mean, once you look at the science, and the facts here, it is clear what is going to happen.
I will point out the lakes etc that feed into Lake Oroville, are upstream and flow downhill into the lake unless I am mistaken. I will also point out the KEY THING HERE is the entire California “water system” in terms of available storage ability is already nearly 100 percent capacity after several days/weeks of incessant snow and rain fall. Any snow or rain that falls now will not be absorbed the ground, which is also nearly 100 percent saturated, nor will it be absorbed by the storage system which is at or near full capacity.
THE SITUATION IS ANY RAIN OR SNOW MELT THAT FALLS ANYWHERE IN THE OROVILE WATERSHED AREA WILL RAPIDLY FLOW DIRECTLY INTO LAKE OROVILE.
It is the water version of GIGO, as in WIWO or water in water out. The situation is like a running toilet with the handle slightly jiggled to allow water to keep running. It won’t fill up and stop because the rubber stopper can’t seat. “They” are going to have to keep the spillway, or spillways, open 24/7 and that means the spillway damage will only increase.
It was Richard Nixon’s AG, John Mitchell who is famously quoted as saying, “Don’t watch what we say, but only what we do.”
“They” are saying the dam is under control. “They” are saying they know what “they” are doing. “They” are in full assurance mode. “They” are using the media to lull the Sheeple back to sleep.
However, what “they” are actually doing is completely different.
“They” are fully mobilizing all 23,000 California National Guardsmen. “They” are fully bringing in Pentagon planners etc to “interface,” with Governor Moonbeam. “They” are suddenly dead silent about dropping out of the Federal Union and whining for as much FEMA funds as they can get. “They” are requesting various counties be declared disaster areas like in Idaho.
Yep, the difference between what “they” are saying, versus what “they” are doing tells me the helos with the body bags are likely inbound from DC by now.
THEY ARE PREPARING FOR A DISASTER INVOLVING BILLIONS AND BILLIONS IN PROPERTY DAMAGE AND POTENTIALLY THOUSANDS, MAYBE EVEN TENS OF THOUSANDS OF CORPSES. I GUESS THE SHEEPLE LADY IN HER PJS REALLY IS GOING TO REGRET TRUSTING GOVERNOR MOONBEAM.