The key point here is the last two years in a row have been near perfect harvests globally. In spite of this, we are going to have to draw down global cereal reserves to meet global food needs. When, not if, we have any level of cereal grain production issues, we will rapidly see distortions in the markets. The distortions will be based on price increases. People will pay more for food, assuming they can still get it. It will be, as it always is, the poor and the weak who will suffer. However, the time will come when food will be so short money won’t be enough. After all, money can’t buy food that hasn’t been harvested.
The source of this article, FARS News, the Iranian propaganda website, indicates that the American corporate media continues to ignore stories of decisive impact on people’s lives. Famine is coming. You may count on it.
FAO: World Cereal Production in 2016 Sets to 2521 mln Tons
TEHRAN (FNA)- World cereal production in 2016 is set to amount to 2 521 million tons, just 0.2 percent off last year’s large output and the third-highest global performance on record, according to FAO’s first forecast for the new season, released on Wednesday.
The small decline in 2016/17 world cereal production portended by FAO would largely result from a lower worldwide wheat production, which is now expected to amount to 712.7 million tons, some 20 million tons less than in 2015.
According to a press release published by the FAO Representation in Iran, the decline mostly reflects smaller plantings in the Russian Federation and Ukraine, both affected by dry weather.
Global output of coarse grains is projected at 1 313 million tons, up about 11 million tons from 2015, with expected increases in maize production more than offsetting declines for barley and sorghum.
Maize output is seen growing by 1.1 percent to 1 014 million tons, driven by recovering yields in the European Union and expanding plantings in the United States. At the same time, maize production is expected to fall in Southern Africa and Brazil, due to drought and adverse growing conditions associated with El Niño.
World rice production is predicted to recover with a return to normal weather conditions in northern-hemisphere Asia, where erratic rains have affected planting activity for the past two seasons. Global output, although impacted by unattractive prices, is predicted to rise 1.0 percent to 495 million tons.
International trade in cereals in 2016/17, however, is poised to decline for the second consecutive season – by 1.4 percent to 365 million tons – due to ample stockpiles and modest demand growth in many importing countries.
Global cereal utilization in 2016/17 is foreseen to grow only modestly, rising by around 1.0 percent to 2 547 million tons, according to very preliminary new estimates.
As utilization is anticipated to exceed production, cereal reserves would need to be drawn down to fill the gap. FAO’s first forecast for world cereal stocks at the close of seasons ending in 2017 points to a likely 3.9 percent annual decline to 611 million tons. However, the resulting world cereal stock-to-utilization ratio would still approach 23 percent, well above the historical low of 20.5 percent registered in the 2007/2008 season.
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