History will record the creation of a Kurdish Federated zone in both Iraq and Syria as a defining event in modern history. The Kurds will not be denied this time. The Kurds will brook no attempt to deny them the single goal they have sought for centuries. The result of that effort will set the Middle East on fire. It will eventually result in the partition of Iraq, Syria and Turkey. It is already causing chaos in the ongoing farce called the “Syrian Peace Talks,” in Geneva, Switzerland. The professional diplomats don’t really know how to deal with the situation.
We know the Kurdish goal is zone covering most of Northern Iraq, what used to be the 1991 no fly zone, now combined with the entire Iraqi and Syrian border with Turkey. Further, there is no doubt, at least to me; the Kurds intend to annex most of Southeastern Turkey. This is the area where most of the Kurds living in Turkey make their homes. This entire region is already in rebellion against Erdogan and his increasingly fascist regime. Erdogan is now engaged in what can only be called genocide against the Kurdish cities. Cities that are now in rebellion to his government. The Kurds in Syria are not going to let that go unchallenged. Once they finish closing the final pocket containing ISIS and Al Qaida, they will not hesitate to send in military supplies to their comrades fighting the Turkish military and the Grey Wolf terrorists Erdogan has sent in to murder civilians. The Kurds will launch cross border operations, send in sapper teams, and begin a campaign of forcing the Turkish military to cede control to the Kurds.
Erdogan will then request NATO implement clause 5. Clause 5 is the call for help from a country that is being invaded. Erdogan will never allow the creation of a Kurdish state on his border with Syria and Iraq. Erdogan will never allow Turkey to be partitioned. Turkey will be in the same situation as the Ukraine now is in. He will have lost a chunk of his country to the Kurdish state. He will scream for help from NATO, the EU, and the US. I don’t know if he will get it, but he will certainly demand it. Granted, he is kicking out German journalists, calling anybody who doesn’t agree with him a terrorist and throwing people in jail for “insulting” him. In fact, there have been over 2,000 people charged with making disparaging comments about him.
I see the situation unfolding as follows. It will take the Kurds a few more days, possibly a month or two, or three, to seal the final border pocket. They will have then forced ISIS and Al Qaida over the Turkish border, kicked them out of Syria completely, and sealed off all supply routes for any group deeper inside of Syria. All of this is being combined with ongoing attacks all over Syria to exterminate the final remnants of Al Qaida and ISIS. ISIS is also completely cut off from Iraq. It is being forced into smaller and smaller pockets subject to air strikes, artillery strikes and eventual infantry attacks.
Putin has replaced any fighter jets he pulled out with his most advanced attack helicopters. He has given the Kurds enough anti-aircraft defenses to make Turkish bombing runs dangerous. It is only a matter of time before one of the Turkish and Saudi Arabian jets gets shot down over Iraq or Syria. Once that happens, all hell is going to break lose.
It was also reported today that nearly 250 cease fire violations have taken place since the start of the cease fire. Considering ISIS and Al Qaida have been pounded without mercy, this means the other 97 groups must be still fighting. The positive news spin about the cease fire is revealed to be just another lie. Once the Mosul offensive begins, I can say both Iraq and Syria are at war, just like they have been at war for the last few years.
Here is the Url of some of the many essays I wrote over at gold-eagle from 1998 to 2007.
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