Like I predicted, the so called “Syrian Cease Fire,” has unleashed a firestorm of violence. It is true that certain areas of Syria are now, more or less, quiet with no fighting. It is also true we now have a free for all between ISIS and pretty much everybody else. ISIS apparently studied the Vietnam War and unleashed a Tet style surprise attack within hours of the cease fire start at 0001 Saturday, the 27th of February. The fact they used Turkish territory to attack Kurdish controlled villages inside of Syria means Turkish support for ISIS, which has been proven by Russia, is clear for all to see. ISIS launched a staggering 15 independent attacks on the Kurds all along the Syrian and Turkish border. This scale of attacks triggered multiple airstrikes by US F-16’s and A-10 Warthog ground attack planes. It also triggered intense fighting all along the border. The result of that free for all has led to a large Turkish response, including 16 Turkish F-16’s flying combat air patrol all along the border. It is amazing that we haven’t seen air to air combat between US warplanes and Turkish jets.
The farce of a cease fire, which never included either ISIS or Al Qaida, has resulted in an increase in violence. ISIS and Al Qaida have responded to it by unleashing a tidal wave of attacks all along the border. ISIS also is active in the area around the Russian air base. This led to multiple Russian sorties to attack them. The Russians have now grounded their planes and have left the US Air Force free to attack both ISIS and Al Qaida with impunity. At any rate, any feeble thought the cease fire would reduce violence in Syria has been shown to be delusional. The cease fire has allowed the concentration of air strikes on ISIS and Al Qaida. This is because the other 97 groups have signed on in order to strengthen their forces. Of course, the cease fire prohibits this resupply effort, which means we can expect combat between the Assad alliance and the 97 groups to start soon. We are looking at what in computer terms would be called a reboot. It is naïve to think all sides aren’t using the cease fire to increase their combat effectiveness.
We also know the Saudis have been sending fighter jets to the NATO airbase. We know the Saudi military exercise called Northern Thunder is going full blast. The numbers involved, like the claim they have deployed 20,000 tanks, sounds delusional in my view. Whether they have actually deployed 20,000 tanks or not, the exercise still represents a massive military force poised to invade Syria through Iraq, or provide support for the 600,000 man Turkish military to invade Syria.
One of the things people should keep in mind is we are dealing with 1 to 2 MILLLION military people either fully mobilized for Northern Thunder, or actually fighting in Syria. Given that kind of concentrated firepower now openly deployed in the entire region, all it will take is one spark.
I am now fully convinced that in the case of Turkey’s Prime Minister Erdogan we have loose cannon. Erdogan just allowed ISIS fighters to freely move inside of Turkey and then directly attack the Kurds inside of Syria. This level of open support for ISIS by Turkey is very dangerous in my view. We have a little over two weeks to the Ides of March. What the situation will be by then is still unclear. I will note one thing: Turkey and Saudi Arabia have now deployed the types and amounts of military assets that make a Syrian invasion plausible. I think Turkey may have given up on getting any NATO support. If they have, then Erdogan may be coming to the conclusion he must do it alone. Again, Turkey under Erdogan will never allow a functional Kurdish state to be created on its border. It will also crush any internal Kurdish attempt to set up a Kurdish state inside of Turkey. The Kurds have also apparently begun a general terror campaign inside of Turkey in response to the massacre of Kurds in that village. The massacre of the Kurdish civilians, who were reputedly burnt alive by Turkish soldiers, will further inflame the situation. The impact of this level of hatred between the Kurds and Turkey means that whatever the Russians, Americans or NATO decide, passions on the ground will keep the violence going strong.
Finally, we have the Assad alliance closing in on Aleppo. We also have what amounts to an ongoing general offense by the Assad alliance to take as much of Syria as they can. ISIS and Al Qaida will resist any such efforts as best they can. We can be sure the violence will only increase.
This link from Iran’s Fars News, and yes it is biased, shows what I am talking about
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