If anybody had any delusions the so called “Syrian Cease Fire,” was anything of the sort, today pretty much entombed any such delusions. I said that the Assad Alliance would move mountains to regain control of the supply route into Aleppo. They have now seized, or mostly seized, since it is hard to tell until the last ISIS sniper is dead, the town and hills. They still have some work to do on the actual supply road, but should be done by Saturday. I will also point out the definition of a “terrorist “is somewhat vague. The Assad Alliance has one view, while the Turks have another. Come Sunday morning, the Turks will still be shelling the Kurds inside of Syria, and the Russians will still be bombing both ISIS and Al Qaida,
Further, the Kurds, who can be forgiven for being annoyed at being shelled for over a week now, have promised an early start to the “Kurdish Spring.” The Kurdish Spring is the annual spring offensive by the Kurds inside of Turkey against Erdogan’s government and military. The fact one Turkish soldier was just killed in South East Turkey tells me it has already begun. When you add the arms cache just discovered near Ankara, well the pot is simmering. In fact, when I look at the “big picture,” I see the following. The Assad Alliance is continuing the ongoing military offensive against ISIS and Al Qaida with no reason to stop on Saturday. The Turks have taken the kinds of actions, as well as deployed the types and amounts of military assets directly on the Syrian border, that tell me they are looking for a quick strike into Syria to crush the Kurds. I think it will be just like the one they did to save that Turkish shrine a few months ago. The Turks have entered Syria and cleared an Olive tree orchard in order to create a free fire zone. They have sent mobile APC mounted Stinger anti-aircraft missile to the Syrian border. They have already deployed an 18,000 man division there. They have also just sent in mobile radar jamming systems. I look at all of the above and I can only conclude Turkey and its increasingly isolated, cut off and, in my view, delusional leader Erdogan are planning a “surgical strike” on Kurdish positions threatening the Turkish border with Syria.
One of the things I try to do here on my blog “Doomism,” is keep track of all the many parts; especially, how they fit together. Here is what I see happening over the next few days/weeks. The siren’s call for a “buffer zone,” complete with 30,000 US military, which is a variant of the “no fly zone,” may be the most lunatic idea Kerry, Obama, and Biden have ever come up with. The Assad Alliance will never allow the creation of any such zone on its border, nor will it ever accept the deployment of Turkish troops, NATO troops, or especially American troops. If any attempt to do that is made, well just KABOOM! I will also sadly note Donald Trump, apparently under the spell of that neo-con warmonger Sarah Palin, has stated he supports such a zone. Trump is good on domestic issues; unfortunately, he seems to be trapped by the fascist, neo con wing of the Republican Party.
The final straw is the EU, the European Union, statement they are unilaterally imposing an arms embargo on Saudi Arabia. The impact of that is going to be to enrage the House of Saud. The House of Saud will correctly assume the fact the EU is imposing an arms embargo on the Sunni House of Saud, and not on the Shia in Iran to be taking sides against the Sunni Muslims.
I think, and I have to tell my blog readers plainly, all of this is happening so rapidly, and on so many levels, even my blog comments are being overwhelmed.
I see a train of events headed towards a derailment of immense violence. I see people and nations make bad decisions that will lead to disaster. And finally, I see the prospect of a general war breaking out in Syria between the Assad Alliance, the Turkish military under Erdogan the Lunatic, and dragging in pretty much everybody else. I realize people will just say I am being negative. They will say the events aren’t as bad as they look, or the situation as dire as I paint it. Well, you get to think what you want, blog reader, but I will just say unless you are seeing something I am not; we are headed towards the abyss.
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