I think if you take a sober minded, no BS view of the current situation in Syria, a few things come to mind. The first is we are now one week into this escalating crisis. If you look at the start point, and compare it to today, a clear pattern of escalating violence, bad decisions, hysteria and threats is increasing in both scale and fanaticism.
One week ago the Kurds, the Syrian military, and Iran using Hezbollah, started a general offensive to close the pocket containing the last link to Turkey. Inside this pocket were the trapped remnants of opposition to Syria’s Assad, Under the cover of sustained air attacks by the Russian Air Force, the result has been made clear. Turkey certainly understands they are losing the war. Turkey certainly understands they now face the total collapse of all the military, political and diplomatic goals they set out to achieve. The overthrow of the Assad government and the creation of a Turkish enclave covering all of Northern Syria was the goal. This attempt has now completely failed for both Turkey and its Saudi Arabian allies.
One week ago Saudi Arabia mobilized somewhere between 150,000 and 250,000 men for an exercise called Northern Thunder. Turkey, in response to the imminent military collapse of its proxy forces, began unrestricted artillery shelling of Kurdish positions inside of Syria. Further, this shelling has now not only lasted seven full days, but has expanded from one city to eleven as of today. In addition to all of that military response, Turkey has suffered three separate terror attacks killing dozens. And finally, with the death in prison of the Kurdish leader, we have the final firebomb to throw on the fire.
In summary, we have gone from Turkey shelling one city to shelling eleven. We have gone from zero terror attacks to three. We have gone from no Saudi Arabian alliance soldiers being mobilized to at least 150,000. We have gone from the admittedly feeble diplomatic attempts to deal with the crisis, to the total collapse of all political and diplomatic efforts. Now we find a situation where several hundred thousand troops are fully mobilized for war. We find a situation where the Kurdish and Turkish leaders think the other side is killing their people. We have a psychological situation of near total hysteria, panic, and moves to seize dictator status by the Turkish leader. All of this is happening in one seven day period. I will simply ask my blog reader’s one question. If all of that happened in the last seven days, what do you think will happen over the next seven?
I can assure you Turkey is going to continue unrestricted 155 mm artillery shelling at the Kurds in Syria. I can assure both Turkish and Saudi Arabian jets will continue bombing both Syria and Northern Iraq to get at the Kurds. I can assure you the Kurds, enraged beyond reason at what they see as the murder of their leader by Turkey, will increase their efforts to close the pocket. I can assure that all of the players, from Russia and Iran, to NATO, Obama and the EU; including Saudi Arabia and Turkey will not back off, slow down, or make any attempt to stop the spiral of violence.
Critical mass is the term used to explain the exact point a nuclear reaction will explode. Synergy is a term used to define when result exceeds the sum of the parts. Synergy means two plus two no longer equals four. It now equals six or more. Well, my blog readers, we are now reaching both critical mass and synergy in Syria. The death of the Kurdish leader, in my opinion, will provide the exact point where critical mass is reached psychologically, politically and diplomatically. When you have a military situation where both sides regard the other as terrorists, war criminals, and raving lunatics, the political and diplomatic prognosis is not good. We have a Syrian equation where all the various individual parts: Assad’s military forces, Iran, Russia, the Kurds, Turkey, NATO, the EU, Obama and the USA, Saudi Arabia are now in synergy land. I will just point out the final result of escalating violence, chaos and anarchy is now greater than a simple listing of each of the above would normally result in.
We are going into uncharted territory now. I can’t honestly say what the conditions will be seven days from now. I can say I see no indication of any of the above groups backing down, or backing off, or even slowing down the growing spiral of violence. I was wrong in my seventy two hour timeline. I was not wrong is my analysis of the basic trends now happening. Nor was I wrong in my strong belief things were rapidly getting out of control, much less the total failure of all diplomatic and political efforts to prevent the kind of escalating violence we are now seeing. The final question of what the situation will be like on March fifteenth is too depressing for me to ponder. Each day will bring forth its harvest of things to deal with; I will deal with the daily dose of chaos and violence as it happens. Still, unless a miracle happens, we will see Yom Kippur Two soon enough. The fact Israel just bombed Syria is yet another indication of just how totally out of control the situation really is.
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