In what I can only call the greatest military mobilization in Saudi Arabian history, it is clear that both Turkey and the Saudi Arabian coalition are going full bore now. At the exact same time that the Saudi coalition was mobilizing over 150,000 troops, which is two entire army groups, with hundreds of tanks, trucks and other vehicles, along with dozens of planes, in an exercise called “Northern Thunder,” Turkey shelled Kurdish positions inside of Syria for a second day. The word for that is called escalation.
Russia, well Putin has turned the Russian Air Force loose in Syria and today’s events show it. Russian planes are pretty much bombing at will in Syria any target they decide they want to bomb. This means Russian jets are pounding Aleppo into piles of concrete as I write this. In fact, the battle for Aleppo is nearly over now. I won’t deny some cleanup work needs to be done in the suburbs around Aleppo, or we will see the kind of last stand fighting Militant Islam prefers. Still, Aleppo is now restored to Assad Junior in all its gutted glory. Turkey and Saudi Arabia have failed to achieve their goals in Syria against Iran and Assad. The venom Turkey feels with this failure is a large part of what is driving its lunatic policy in Syria.
I see now reason now for anybody to back off in either Yemen or Syria. The Houthi just launched a missile inside of Saudi Arabia with lethal results. I am wondering if the 20 members of this Saudi Coalition are starting to realize exactly what they signed on for. Jordan has sniffed around and decided they won’t let Saudi troops use Jordanian transit corridors to either Iraq or Syria. This is the kind of wise move Jordan routinely makes and explains why Jordan is still around.
I am still saying we are on for a Yom Kippur level of war in Syria. The fact Israel is now openly calling for partition of Syria indicates the end game is now upon us. Russia is going to keep using its military to do what it wants done in Syria. Turkey will not back down and will continue to attack the Kurds anywhere they can. Saudi Arabia, well let’s just say you don’t have several hundred thousand troops on exercise unless you plan to use them soon. In fact, the exercise gives good cover for a direct deployment into Syria. Yep, all the pieces are in motion now.
And finally, I still haven’t figured out what NATO will really do. I can’t think they are delusional enough to support Turkey in what could turn into a direct war with Russia. NATO is done at this point I think. If they support Turkey, NATO is finished, but if they do not, then they are also finished.
Enjoy your Valentine’s Day such as it is. I think we have very narrowly avoided a bullet between Russia and Turkey, at least for the next day or two or so. The longer Turkey continues to shell the Kurds inside of Syria, or any other Russian supported forces the more dangerous the situation becomes. The slightest miscalculation, or error in judgment, or even one single pilot finding himself in a bad situation could have consequences I can’t even speculate on right now. We are on the edge.
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