MIDDLE EAST CRISIS NUMBER 245 1-4-2016

Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
My end of the world e book “Day of the Dogs” will soon be available for sale at smashwords. The url is
https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/267340 It is also at the following url
http://www.amazon.com/-/e/B007BRLFYU

 

One thing I can say about the Middle East is it is never far from a regional war. The summary execution of the Shia cleric by Saudi Arabia has now unleashed a new level of passion. These passions can only understood in the context of the  1300 year long civil war between Sunni and Shia Muslims. Iran and Saudi Arabia are the two leaders of the respective groups. They have been at odds over Yemen, Syria, Iraq and control of the sacred sites inside of Saudi Arabia, for decades now. It is nothing new for them to be at each others throats. What is new is they have now essentially cut all diplomatic relations, and the consequences of that will be profound.

For one thing, both Iran and Saudi Arabia are now  fully engaged in two separate proxy wars. The first is Syria, between the Shia supported Assad junior, along with Vlad the Impaler version two, now fully aligned with Iran to take down the Sunni group ISIS. Further, Saudi Arabia has created a Sunni Muslim military force now directly engaged in both Syria and Yemen. I will note in both Syria and Yemen Saudi Arabia is now fully engaged with Iranian proxy forces. In Yemen the Saudi Arabian Sunni military force is openly fighting the Houthi Tribal Militias being armed by Iran directly. In Syria, Iran is using Assad’s forces, Russian forces, French forces, Hezzbollah from Lebanon and Iranian Revolutionary Guard troops to fight both ISIS and the other Sunni groups. Sunni groups directly supported by Saudi Arabia and its allies, as well as the USA under our increasingly feckless Obama.

In this context of regional proxy wars raging unchecked, Saudi Arabia decided to throw more lighter fluid on the fire by killing the Shia cleric. Iran couldn’t let this pass without a response. Saudi Arabia also cajoled Bahrain into cutting off diplomatic relations with Iran. The public comments coming from Iran are also a bit harsh to put it mildly. Clearly, Obama’s policy of engagement with Iran has now crashed and burned. We should also remember Iranian warships just cruised up to within 1,500 yards of an American Aircraft Carrier, and boldly did a “live fire missile test.” In the bad old days of Reagan and Bush, the American response would have been to light up the targets with missile lock radar and take them out. Under our Cretin in Chief Obama, apparently Iran can do pretty much whatever it wants to.

The current situation in the Middle East is as dangerous as at any time since the Yom Kippur War in October of 1973. Iran has multiple options to tweak the Saudi Royal Nose. Iran can further reinforce Syria. Iran can openly deploy even more military forces directly into Iraq. The Shia government isn’t going to stop them. Finally, Iran can start sending in convoys of supply ships, complete with  escorts, to reinforce the Houthi in Yemen. Again, what will Saudi Arabia do if Iranian ships start offloading military supplies into areas the Houthi control? If Saudi Arabia really does send in some fighter jets, well we know what will happen then. Iran can also unleash Shia chaos in both Bahrain and the eastern areas of Saudi Arabia with majority Shia populations. It won’t actually take much for Iran to throw Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Eastern Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States into a new level of civil chaos.

The US will find itself ensnared in the kind of mess only the Middle East is capable of producing. I don’t know how all this will play out. I do know both Iran and Saudi Arabia are very likely to stumble into a shooting war.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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