THE FATAL ERROR IN INTELLIGENCE GATHERING

Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
My end of the world e book “Day of the Dogs” will soon be available for sale at smashwords. The url is
https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/267340 It is also at the following url
http://www.amazon.com/-/e/B007BRLFYU

I consider myself to be an amateur intelligence analyst just like the CIA has. The following statements are  my musings on the fatal error Obama has made regarding Militant Islam in general, and ISIS in particular.

The single worst mistake one can make in intelligence analysis is to slant factual reports in order to gain results that are acceptable to political masters. It is the fitting of actual, raw, accurate intelligence data to make it agree with preconceived ideas that usually proves lethal. Rumsfield gets the credit, but I think the actual quote is from somebody else: “It isn’t what you know that kills you, it is what you think you know that isn’t true that kills you.”

We have many historical examples of where disaster struck because intelligence analysts were ordered not to take the raw data seriously. This includes the 1968 TET offensive, where our one intelligence analyst predicted the VC attack, while everybody else said it wouldn’t happen. It includes the Dutch and Belgians refusing to believe the German pilot carrying attack documents, the one who got lost in the fog and crashed in Belgium in January of 1940. It includes the Union General who refused to believe the Confederate courier dropped Lee’s orders. He rejected their accuracy when the Union Army found them.

Yep, of Obama’s many, many sins the fact he has castrated the Intelligence agencies is the worst. OBAMA HAS TOLD THEM THE RESULTS HE EXPECTS WHATEVER THE FACTS SAY IS THE REAL SITUATION.THIS EXPLAINS WHY THE USA HAS BEEN SURPRISED TIME AFTER TIME BY MILITANT ISLAM.

The article is below. It was posted by by Dennis Olson, the self described “Chief Curmudgeon,” at timebomb.

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?479422-DOD-analysts-told-to-cut-it-out-on-ISIS-warnings-IG-probe-expands

Emails show DOD analysts told to ‘cut it out’ on ISIS warnings; IG probe expands
Catherine Herridge

By Catherine Herridge Published November 23, 2015 FoxNews.com

Analysts at U.S. Central Command were pressured to ease off negative assessments about the Islamic State threat and were even told in an email to “cut it out,” Fox News has learned – as an investigation expands into whether intelligence reports were altered to present a more positive picture.

Fox News is told by a source close to the CENTCOM analysts that the pressure on them included at least two emails saying they needed to “cut it out” and “toe the line.”

Separately, a former Pentagon official told Fox News there apparently was an attempt to destroy the communications. The Pentagon official said the email warnings were “not well received” by the analysts.

Those emails, among others, are now in the possession of the Pentagon inspector general. The IG’s probe is expanding into whether intelligence assessments were changed to give a more positive picture of the anti-ISIS campaign.

The former Pentagon official said there were “multiple assessments” from military intelligence and the CIA regarding the “rapid rise” of ISIS in Iraq and North Africa in the year leading up to the group’s territory grab in 2014.

Similar intelligence was included in the President’s Daily Brief, or PDB – the intelligence community’s most authoritative product — during the same time period. Yet the official, who was part of the White House discussions, said the administration kept “kicking the can down the road.” The official said there was no discussion of the military involvement needed to make a difference.

The IG probe started earlier this year amid complaints that information was changed to make ISIS look more degraded than it really was.

Among the complaints is that after the U.S. air campaign started in August 2014, the metrics to measure progress changed. They were modified to use measures such as the number of sorties and body counts — a metric not used since the Vietnam War — to paint a more positive picture.

Critics say this “activity-based approach” to tracking the effectiveness of strikes does not paint a comprehensive picture of whether ISIS is being degraded and contained.

The New York Times first reported on Sunday that the IG investigation was expanding and adding more investigators, and that the office had taken possession of a trove of documents and emails as part of that probe.

Asked about the report, House intelligence committee Chairman Devin Nunes, R-Calif., said Sunday that his committee and others are involved in the investigation.

“We heard from a lot of whistle-blowers and other informants who have given us information. And not just … related strictly to the latest allegations,” Nunes said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

Citing the renewed focus on ISIS after the Paris terror attacks, he added: “So the president to have a successful strategy is going to admit that they’ve got it wrong and they need to relook at a larger strategy that deals with north Africa, the Middle East, all the way over to Afghanistan, Pakistan, and then work closely with our NATO allies with what appears to be a command and control structure that ISIS has created successfully in Europe.”

President Obama, speaking at a press conference in Malaysia over the weekend, said he expects to “get to the bottom” of whether ISIS intelligence reports were altered – and has told his top military officials as much.

“One of the things I insisted on the day I walked into the Oval Office was that I don’t want intelligence shaded by politics. I don’t want it shaded by the desire to tell a feel-good story,” Obama said Sunday. “I believe that the Department of Defense and all those who head up our intelligence agencies understand that, and that I have made it repeatedly clear to all my top national security advisors that I never want them to hold back, even if the intelligence or their opinions about the intelligence, their analysis or interpretations of the data contradict current policy.”

At the same time, he said, “As a consumer of this intelligence, it’s not as if I’ve been receiving wonderfully rosy, glowing portraits of what’s been happening in Iraq and Syria over the last year and a half. … [I]t feels to me like, at my level at least, we’ve had a pretty clear-eyed, sober assessment.”

The president’s call for a thorough investigation was greeted with cynicism by those involved in the 2014 intelligence assessments, since the administration did not act on the earlier raw intelligence that painted a dire picture of developments, especially in Iraq.

Catherine Herridge is an award-winning Chief Intelligence correspondent for FOX News Channel (FNC) based in Washington, D.C. She covers intelligence, the Justice Department and the Department of Homeland Security. Herridge joined FNC in 1996 as a London-based correspondent.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015…l?intcmp=hpbt1

 

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