YEMEN’S TIPPING POINT 4-2-2015

One of my personal historical theories is events and actions reach a tipping point from which recovery is no longer possible. This “critical mass” has now been reached in Yemen in my opinion. Yemen has gone from a “problem over there,” to a “crisis with global threat.” The open deployment of offensive missile batteries on the islands dividing the entrance strait to the Red Sea by the Houthi militias seals the deal. The bombing of those islands by the Sunni “alliance,” now guarantees a Sunni/Shia JIHAD. Further, the news story of the “message” sent by Iran’s leader to the Shia leader of Iraq is very, very disturbing. I’m thinking Iran is asking for transit permission for its Revolutionary Guard divisions. Kuwait, one of the Sunni Ten as I am calling them, is within easy striking distance from the Shia bastion in Basra, Southern Iraq.

Well, we are now at the next level, gang. IF anybody had any doubt the Iranian backed Shia Houthi tribal militias were going to be a threat to GLOBAL SHIP TRANSIT LANES FROM THE SUEZ CANAL THE ISSUE IS NOW SETTLED.

The bombing of the islands now under Shia Houthi control takes us to the point missile fire is going to be launched in response to the airstrikes. I seriously doubt the Houthi missile crews are going to sit there and take being bombed. Further, it is clear, to me at least, the Houthis have a VAST STOCKPILE OF ALL TYPES OF MISSILES FOR USE. The so called Saudi Air Campaign has proved for the 400th time YOU CAN’T DESTROY A MILITARY WITH AIR STRIKES ALONE. You can certainly hinder their movement on roads etc, but you can’t really get at their underground/tunnel/bunker complexes. The US created the bunker busters and even they can’t do the trick unless you have precision info on tunnel entrances.

The fact a Saudi border post came under direct fire by the Houthi INSIDE, REPEAT INSIDE OF YEMEN, also tells me that damn fool of a Sunni Royal moron has now triggered a Houthi military offensive inside of Saudi Arabia.

I see no way for the US and NATO to not get involved in clearing those islands of offensive missile batteries. Further, I am thinking the civilian ship captains, along with the shipping companies, the ship insurers may very well execute a defacto emergency stop transit order within the next 24 to 72 hours. Heck, the Houthis could throw rocks at the ships from those islands.

The “collapse” of the Iranian nuclear talks tells me Iran made a bunch of demands that caught Obama et al flatfooted.

The Battle of Aden is about to begin for real. It will be urban combat on a grand scale. It will prove yet again exactly why urban combat is the worst kind possible. It will be street to street, against combat veteran, entrenched Houthi militia who are not shy about committing martyrdom operations.

Yep, the Russians have a proverb that goes: “The more you stir a compost pile the more it stinks.” It should be obvious to everybody by now the “Sunni alliance” has now fully triggered a SHIA JIHAD in Yemen.

Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
My end of the world e book “Day of the Dogs” will soon be available for sale at smashwords. The url is
https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/267340 It is also at the following url
http://www.amazon.com/-/e/B007BRLFYU
The following is from Bloomberg Press.
Yemeni Rebels Strengthen Positions in Strait, Djibouti Says

by Paul Richardson
6:11 AM PDT
April 2, 2015

Houthi rebels in Yemen have strengthened their positions on two islands in the strait of Bab el-Mandeb, deploying weapons that may put commercial and military vessels at risk, Djibouti’s foreign minister said.

The fighters have placed missiles, long-range cannons and “small rapid boats” loaded with heavy weaponry on Perim, the island that divides the strait into two channels between Djibouti and Yemen, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf said in an interview Thursday in Djibouti City. The Houthis are also reinforcing their positions on a smaller island in the area, he said.

“They are preparing themselves, at least to defend themselves if there is a blockade, or to attack vessels in the strait of Bab el-Mandeb if they feel that they are threatened when it comes to the control of the coastal areas of Yemen,” Youssouf said. “The prospect of a war in the strait of Bab al-Mandeb is a real one.”

The Bab el-Mandeb is the fourth-busiest oil and fuel shipping bottleneck in the world by volume. It’s located between Yemen, Djibouti and Eritrea, and gives crude tankers access to the Red Sea as well as the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea. The strait is 18 miles wide at its narrowest point, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Saudi Arabia has assembled a coalition of Sunni Muslim countries to carry out airstrikes against the Houthis, who have seized much of the country and forced President Abdurabuh Mansur Hadi to flee to Riyadh, the Saudi capital. The rebels have formed an alliance with former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who still commands the loyalty of parts of the army.
Safe Passage

Youssouf said coalition forces must remove the weapons from the islands in order to ensure the safe passage of ships through the strait. In 2013, 3.8 million barrels a day of crude and oil products flowed through Bab el-Mandeb, EIA data show. More than half of the shipments moved to the Suez Canal and SUMED Pipeline, which link Egypt’s ports of Ain Sukhna on the Red Sea and Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean.

“All commercial and military vessels that pass through the strait of Bab el-Mandeb are within the reach of those arms and missiles,” Youssouf said. “It’s a big danger, for all of us not only Djibouti, but all the commercial vessels, military vessels.”

Coalition forces carried out three air strikes on Perim on Thursday night, said Mahmoud Naji, a soldier at the military Brigade No. 17 station in Bab el-Mandeb city. The air force jets also targeted other strategic military posts controlled by Houthis in the region, he said by phone.
Thousands Evacuated

Closure of the waterway may keep tankers from the Persian Gulf from reaching the Suez Canal and the SUMED Pipeline, diverting them around the southern tip of Africa, adding to transit time and cost, according to the EIA. Ships carrying oil from Europe and North Africa to Asian markets wouldn’t be able to take the most direct route, it said on its website.

Djibouti has been helping evacuate thousands of foreign nationals stranded in Yemen since conflict in the country intensified last month. Chinese and Indian civilians along with Russian diplomats are among those who have arrived by air and by sea, Youssouf said. As many as 2,000 Djiboutian nationals are being returned to their homeland, he said.

Any further deterioration in the situation in Yemen may lead to an “exodus” of Yemenis to Djibouti, particularly if the blockade of Yemeni ports by coalition forces leads to food, energy and water shortages, Youssouf said. About 50 families have already arrived in northern Djibouti and are being accommodated in the northeastern town of Obock, he said.

Djibouti, a desert country which imports most of its food and has a scarcity of water, has little capacity to deal with a refugee crisis, Youssouf said.

“We’re just trying to do what we can with what we have,” he said. “At some point, we might have to call the international community to come and assist.”

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3 Comments

  1. (Saudi) Arabia is a construct of the UK, the Royal family a dysfunctional cleptocracy that has no idea of fighting a real war against an armed foe. This will end badly for these corrupt people and they will flee in droves to Europe etc. The hope that the Pakistani army will help is delusional. If Iran enters this fight, Pakistan will pull its troops out (even if Riyadh sends more billions to the corrupt politicians in Islamabad) as not to be caught in a multi front war.
    The Shia have had enough and they are sick of this pond scum pushing them around in Israels name.
    If the Yemanis enter (Saudi) Arabia its army will fold, unless bailed out by foreign forces.

    Reply

  2. They are trying to find any reason to jack up oil prices & keep their oil empire from collapsing.

    Oil industry is experiencing major layoffs as well as bankruptcies.

    Reply

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