The magnitude of the political fallout from Israel’s airstrike on the Hezzbollah convoy in Southern Lebanon has now reached critical mass. Israel has now set in play a decisive military/political victory for Iran and Hezzbollah. Israel’s airstrike is now a game-changer for the entire Middle East. Here is my take on what this means for the rest of the world.
It is clear to Doomer Doug an Iranian policy going back to 2008 is now entering the final phase. The following link talks about the deployment of missiles to Eritrea by Iran. http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=980
Iran has now used its proxy group, the Shia Houthi tribesmen from Northern Yemen, to depose the US backed leadership. The Houthi compose one third of Yemen’s total population. The rest are Sunni Muslims who back the terror group called Al Quadea of the Arabian Peninsula. They are responsible for the 2001 attack on the USS Cole that killed 17 US sailors. They are responsible for the Paris attacks that killed the 12 people. Iran has now taken over effective control of Yemen, using their proxy group to oust the US backed president, and set the stage for a wide ranging effort to crush Saudi Arabia.
Western leaders, looking for a rapid and highly public relations worthy “anti-terror attack political payback,” will be courted by the Shia Houthi to use drones to kill off their Sunni opposition in Yemen. Iran will allow the extermination of the Sunni terror group in Yemen to cleanse it for the Shia. Sunnis will either be fled or dead once this happens. Iran will then use the wide open ports in Yemen to ship in all the weapons it wants for phase two of this long planned operation. Iran will send war material into the Eastern Areas of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the other Gulf States with significant Shia minorities. Shia is only a majority religion in Iran. It has enough of a minority, if well armed, to create chaos in both the Gulf States and Eastern Saudi Arabia. Iran will put into the danger zone virtually ALL oil producing, refining, and shipping infrastructure in the entire Persian Gulf and Saudi Arabian area. Iran can use local Shia to launch terror attacks which will result in a disruption of the critical oil flow to Japan and the West.
Iran will have plausible denial ability. Iran will have isolated bases in Yemen to launch attacks. Further, Iran is going for total domination of ALL potential oil export routes. Iran has long had the ability to launch anti-ship missiles in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian bases in Eritrea give it the ability to seal the entrance to the Red Sea/Suez Canal from the West. Iran now has the ability, as soon as it ships the missiles and launchers into Yemen’s ports, to launch from the East. Iran now has, or will soon have, the complete ability to seal both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea entrance to the Suez Canal.
The goal of all this is several fold, in my opinion.
First: Iran seeks to take down the Saudi Arabian Royal Family in order to gain control of the sacred sites.
Second: Iran seeks to make it impossible for anybody, Israel, Europe, NATO, or the USA, to attack it when it announces it really does have nuclear weapons. Iran will simply state, in the event of any type of attack on Iran, it will seal the Strait of Hormuz. It will also seal the Red Sea entrance, from Yemen and Eritrea, to the Suez Canal.
Three: Iran may very well be planning to make a public announcement it really does have nuclear weapons.
Four: Iran is seriously angry at the death of its people in Israel’s airstrike.
Five: Iran is opening a new southern front against Israel. This new front will prevent Israel from using the Suez Canal, especially for the Dolphin Class submarines Israel got from Germany. Yemen will make a very effective logistics hub for HAMAS in the Gaza strip. It will also work well for Shia based militias in Eastern Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States.
Six: Iran will move to the next level. Iran will be a credible military threat, even without nuclear weapons, and able to unleash massive economic chaos with a few missile launches. Iran can blame any missile attacks on the Sunnis. Iran can make shipping insurance rates go so high no tanker will go through the Suez Canal, much less into the Persian Gulf.
All of this has happened within 48 hours of Israel killing that Revolutionary Guard General in the airstrike. IRAN IS NOW CLEARLY MOVING ON A WAR FOOTING AND TAKING DECISIVE ACTION IN PURSUIT OF IRANIAN MILITARY GOALS. The fact they are doing this at the same time as Obama’s so called peace effort is underway pretty much says all that needs to be said.
If you are looking for more detail on Yemen click this link:
The following link is to an AP news story on the total collapse of Yemen’s government at the hands of Iranian backed Houthi Shia tribesmen. It is posted under fair use doctrine.
Yemen’s US-backed president quits; country could split apart
By AHMED AL-HAJ and MAGGIE MICHAEL
Yemen’s US-backed president quits; country could split apart
Questions, answers on Yemen as rebels, president strike deal
Yemeni Shiite rebels take base, guard president’s home
Yemen’s al-Qaida claims Paris attack, vows more violence
Paris gunman told Yemeni he lived with ‘underwear bomber’
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SANAA, Yemen (AP) — Yemen’s U.S.-backed president quit Thursday under pressure from rebels holding him captive in his home, severely complicating American efforts to combat al-Qaida’s powerful local franchise and raising fears that the Arab world’s poorest country will fracture into mini-states.
Presidential officials said Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi submitted his resignation to parliament rather than make further concessions to Shiite rebels, known as Houthis, who control the capital and are widely believed to be backed by Iran.
The prime minister and his cabinet also stepped down, making a thinly veiled reference to the Houthis’ push at gunpoint for a greater share of power. Houthis deployed their fighters around parliament, which is due to discuss the situation on Sunday.
Yemeni law dictates that the parliament speaker – Yahia al-Rai, a close ally of former autocratic ruler Ali Abdullah Saleh – will now assume the presidency. Saleh still wields considerable power and is widely believed to be allied with the Houthis.
There were conflicting reports suggesting that authorities in Aden, the capital of southern region of Yemen, would no longer submit to the central government’s authority. Even before the Houthis’ recent ascendance, a powerful movement in southern Yemen was demanding autonomy or a return to the full independence the region enjoyed before 1990. Southerners outrightly reject rule by the Houthis, whose power base is in the north. The Houthis are Zaydis, a Shiite minority that makes up about a third of Yemen’s population.
Concerns were also mounting about an economic collapse. Two-thirds of Yemen’s population are already in need of humanitarian aid, according to reported U.N. figures. Iran’s regional rival Saudi Arabia, which has long been Yemen’s economic lifeline, cut most of its financial aid to Yemen after the Houthis seized the capital in September. The Houthis deny receiving any Iranian support.
The Houthis’ recent encroachments on Sunni areas have also fanned fears of a sectarian conflict that could fuel support for al-Qaida, a Sunni movement that has links to some of the country’s tribes and is at war with both the Shiites and Hadi’s forces. U.S. officials say the developments are already undermining military and intelligence operations against al-Qaida’s Yemen-based affiliate, which made its reach felt in this month’s deadly Paris attacks.
Hadi’s resignation comes four months after President Barack Obama cited Yemen as a terrorism success story in a September speech outlining his strategy against the Islamic State group in Iraq and Syria, which involves targeted U.S. strikes on militants with the cooperation of a friendly ground force. Obama called it an approach “that we have successfully pursued in Yemen and Somalia for years.”
In Washington on Thursday, State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said the U.S. was still trying to sort out what was happening on the ground and had made no decisions yet regarding embassy staffing.
The resignations mark the collapse of an internationally backed transition that compelled Saleh, who ruled for three decades, to resign in 2012 following months of Arab Spring protests.
Hadi’s rule was deeply undermined by Saleh loyalists who retained posts in state institutions and the security apparatus. Last year the U.N. Security Council imposed targeted sanctions on Saleh and two top Houthi leaders, accusing them of obstructing the political transition.
Despite widespread fears, some observers said Thursday’s resignation of the elected president could encourage Yemenis to take to the streets just as they did in 2011 in against Saleh.
“The coming hours will be decisive for Yemen for decades to come. Either they will usher in a new path, new openings, or we say our death prayers,” said Yemeni writer Farea Al-Muslimi.
Shortly after Hadi’s resignation, the Supreme Security Committee, the top security body in Aden, the capital of the south, issued orders to all military bases, security bodies and popular committees composed of armed civilians to be on a state of alert and take orders only from Aden central command.
It was not immediately clear how much mandate the security authorities have over the southern region, and analysts predicted that internal conflict among southern secessionist leaders would probably delay action toward a split with the north.
The greater threat, they said, is fragmentation of other regions.
“We are not talking here about split of north and south, but the fracture of the state to small pieces where each tribal region disintegrates,” said Al-Muslimi.
Hadi’s resignation came despite efforts by U.N. envoy Jamal Benomar to implement a deal reached Wednesday to resolve the crisis.
“We reached a deadlock,” Hadi said, according to a copy of his letter of resignation obtained by The Associated Press. “We found out that we are unable to achieve the goal, for which we bear a lot of pain and disappointment.”
Presidential adviser Sultan al-Atawani told AP that the Houthis refused to withdraw from the presidential palace, the republican palace where the prime minister lives or from the president’s house. They also refused to release a top aide to Hadi whose abduction earlier this week set the violence in motion.
Military officials close to the president said the Houthis also pressured Hadi to deliver a televised speech to calm the streets. They said the Houthis also demanded appointments in his own office, the Defense Ministry and provincial capitals. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media.
Shortly before Hadi’s resignation, Prime Minister Khaled Bahah submitted his own resignation, saying he feared “being dragged into an abyss of unconstructive policies based on no law.”
Three ministers of his cabinet told AP that they were subjected to heavy pressures from Houthi gunmen who visited them in their homes with list of names of people they want to appoint in their ministries. They spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the information.