Urban planners have a phrase they use called infill. Infill is where a developed city takes all the empty lots, abandoned fast food places and gas stations and razes them to the ground. Developers then build apartments on the vacant lot. This infill process means that now all space available is developed.
Doomer Doug thinks the Chinese flu is using the same process. One of the key things people need to understand is that this particular flu is an urban flu. It has struck almost completely in cities. The process of infill means that the flu will now gradually fill in all the areas where cases have been reported.
The Chinese government has clearly decided to suppress the actual total number of cases for political reasons. The Chinese government has not taken any steps to restrict travel during the May Day holiday period. The result will be the continued spread of the flu virus into areas that currently do not have any cases.
Dr. Niman reports that several Shanghai hospitals are closed to new patients due to being overwhelmed with flu victims. Again, this is officially unconfirmed due to the ongoing fact suppression campaign by the Chinese government. We will find out no later than May 15 if the unrestricted travel has led to new cases. The Chinese government will no doubt try to suppress this information. At some point in the near future, these fact suppression efforts will be overwhelmed by the reality.
Today saw the further spread of the flu virus in Hunan towards the southwest. The flu virus is now on the move along with all the traveling people. Further, the issue of human to human transmission is in my opinion absolutely confirmed. Dr. Niman thinks human to human is happening, and that is good enough for me. Doomer Doug’s analysis of the reported flu cases indicates clearly that human to human transmission is now happening.
The real issue is sustained human to human transmission. Doomer Doug does not think we are at that point, yet. The emphasis is on the word yet. The example of the spinning three lemons on a one-armed-bandit slot machine is a good metaphor. Doomer Doug thinks the first two lemons are now lined up. They are geographic progression and geometric progression. The reality of geometric progression is being covered up by the Chinese government, the WHO and other health agencies. This cover-up will not last much longer.
The third lemon is sustained human to human transmission. The lemon is slowing its rotation as more cases of human to human happen. Eventually, it will stop and line up with the first two. When that happens, we will be entering the pandemic phase, at least in China.
Doomer Doug is keeping his four eyes on Hong Kong and Tawian. If Doomer Doug’s theory is correct we will see cases in Hong Kong and more cases in Taiwan. We will also see the continued infill process in all the areas that have reported cases.
At any rate, the Chinese Killer Flu is showing a truly amazing mutation ability. Several other Asian countries are now scanning flight crew and passengers for signs of fever. This so called fever test won’t be of much help. There are many documented cases of people being infected and failing to show any symptoms for several days. The case in Taiwan is a prime example of that.