Since I wrote the blog entry two days ago, China’s flu epidemic has gone critical.
People need to understand this flu had its epicenter in the eastern coastal city of Shanghai in late February and March. There have now been a total of 120 cases in China as of today. Further, the geographic progression has now taken a very disturbing trend as of today. The flu started in Shanghai. It has spread north along the coast in the last three weeks. It has spread to Bejing several hundred miles inland from the East Coast of China. It has spread south from Shanghai to the Fujan area. Finally, it is now confirmed in the CENTRAL CHINESE AREA OF HUNAN. This is a HUGE dot. The flu virus has now spread over much of the east coast of China. It has now spread inland to Bejing. It has now spread inland, towards the west, into Hunan. We are talking hundreds of miles here.
If Shanghai is compared to Washington, D.C. Bejing is New York City. Fujan is Georgia. Hunan is Saint Louis. You see my point here. Don’t be misled by “only” 120 cases. It is very clear the actual number of cases are being under-counted by Chinese authorities. If you place a pin on the map showing Hunan in the west, and you place a pin on Taiwan in the east you will get a clearer view of why the flu battle is now lost in China. China has a big holiday coming up on May 1st. This holiday means TENS OF MILLIONS OF CHINESE will travel all over their country. This will spread the bird flu into all areas of China.
One more thing. It is appalling to see the Chinese health officials STILL DENYING the reality of human to human flu transmission at this late date. You cannot get the kind of geometric progression of cases without human to human transmission. You can’t get the kind of geographic progression from Shanghai to Bejing, to Hunan in the west and Taiwan in the east without human to human transmission. It is IMPOSSIBLE for the flu virus to have spread over such a wide area in less than one month without human to human airborne vector transmission.
At any rate, Doomer Doug expects the flu virus to spread all over China by June 1st at the absolute latest.