Doomer Doug is becoming more concerned about the Chinese flu situation. For starters, there is a Chinese military officer running around claiming it is all an American plot. Chinese government officials are always in a race between corruption and incompetence. The world is going to pay dearly for the usual level of stupidity the Chinese government shows. China has made several mistakes already with this flu. First, they assumed it was a bird flu. It is not. Next, they assumed you had to be exposed to poultry to get it. You do not. Forty percent of the total cases have had no contact with poultry. The large majority of the birds culled do not have this virus in them. Ergo, it is not a bird flu, nor do you get it from close contact with poultry. These two false assumption have hamstrung the global response to this potential global flu pandemic. We can expect nothing less than incompetence from China’s official response. People all over the world will die due to Chinese incompetence. After all, we have a long list of Chinese negligence related to toxic products.
The next issue is a few comments on disease vector. The flu virus is mostly spread by being sprayed into the air by a person coughing. The flu virus can remain suspended in an aerosol droplet form for up to twenty four hours. You can also get it from physical contact with objects contaminated by secretions from infected people. The debate over human to human transmission is over. We are now very clearly in a human to human transmission mode.
The other issues in my mind today are geographic progression and geometric progression. The lethal flu virus is maintaining a kill rate of 20 percent. It is now firmly established all over eastern China, northeast China, and Beijing more towards the center. It will now infill the blank areas between Shanghai on the coast, all the way up to the North Korean border. Further, the flu virus has now gotten to Taiwan. The virus is spreading widely throughout China, Taiwan.
The final issue is geometric progression. When I take a look at the case numbers, the increases of the reported cases on a daily and weekly basis, I can see the horsemen coming. I do not assume the Chinese government is giving truthful and accurate numbers. The public numbers are likely to be between ten percent and twenty percent of the actual numbers. If you through in the large numbers of sick people not showing symptoms, well you get the idea.
The “official reported cases of flu” in China were 14 on April 5th, 2013. 9 days later on the 14th they were 51. Three days later on the 17th the reported cases were 79. The reported cases for the 25th are 120. Again, the real numbers are likely much, much higher.
What I see with these numbers is it took the last part of February, all of March, as well as 5 days into April to get the first 14 cases. It took 9 days to go from 14 to 51. It took 3 days to get to 79. It took 8 days to get to 120. This is for China only. This is for officially government reported cases in China only. We are off the grid here folks.
When I wrote the previous blog entry, there were no cases in Taiwan. There were no cases in several of the major Chinese cities in the north east and north central. There were less reported cases.
The flu epidemic is now here in China and Taiwan. I think it will continue spreading throughout China and Taiwan. The flu is coming to the USA. it is only a matter of time.