THE ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF CHINA’S KILLER FLU 4-29-13

This is a repost of an essay I wrote about SARS for gold-eagle.com back in 2003. This was 10 years ago. We dodged the bullet back then. Doomer Doug has always taken the view he gets the trends correctly. The issue of my “accuracy” has always been related to the timing. The powers that be have simply manipulated the system to prevent the kind of collapses I have long predicted. All things will happen in their own time I think. SARS didn’t turn out to be the kind of disaster I thought it would be back in 2003. It is now ten years later. We shall see if my decade old predictions for SARS turn out to apply to China’s new killer flu.

SARS Infects Global Economy
Doug McIntosh

I’ve been reserving my thoughts on SARS to posts over at http://www.timebomb2000.com for several reasons. One of them is, despite what some people e-mail me, I do try to back up some of my wilder accusations with some semblance of facts. Really. The other reason is I’ve been waiting for some cover from the mainstream press on this one. The press whores botched SARS coverage, like they have economic issues, for the usual reasons. None of which matters now in the slightest. Still, when I write the kinds of things I’m going to say in this essay, I do prefer to at least have one or two of the less whorish mainstream press types around.

So, I’ve waited until now to talk about SARS because I clearly understood from day one exactly what was at stake here. What’s at stake with SARS isn’t just people dying. What’s at stake is the entire global economic system dependent upon the free flow of people and goods. SARS is an economic disease as much as a respiratory one. SARS not only causes difficulty in breathing for human beings. It causes difficulty in tourism, air travel, hotels, conventions and trade shows for the global economy. In other words, SARS is quite effectively shutting down Asia to any kind of people movement. The unanswered question with SARS is whether it will spread to shutting down movement of physical goods. One third of all manufactured items come from China. One documented case of someone getting SARS from touching something made in China and global manufacturing will simply grind to a halt.

SARS stands for sudden acute respiratory syndrome and is thought to have originated in Red China next to Hong Kong. Russian scientists are on record as saying it is a bio-weapon run amok. Other, more likely in my opinion, theories believe it came out of the China soup. The China soup, remember the Hong Kong flu scare of 1997?, is that lethal mixture of pig, duck, chicken, human, and in SAR’s case, reputedly shrimp feces, that generates Chinese flu strains. Swirling around this unsanitary mixture, various viruses sometimes leap from animals to man and cause global pandemics. The last time that happened was the Spanish flu of 1919. The result was millions of people died worldwide. We had the global pandemic of Hong Kong flu in 1968 and the swine flu fiasco of the mid seventies. The world is long overdue for a major flu pandemic.

The world is going to pay dearly for the collapse in healthcare in Red China, Africa, South America and Russia. The Red Chinese in particular can fairly be said to have botched SARS so badly that criminal negligence doesn’t begin to cover their official response. SARS has now spread to 25 countries, killed 248 people and is officially said to have 4300 cases. One of the reasons I held off was due to the low number of total cases. My opinion now is the official figure is fantasy. RED CHINA ALONE NOW HAS 4300 SARS CASES IN MY OPINION. The reason I can make that kind of radical statement is no one, especially not the Red Chinese health authorities, have any idea what is going on out in the boondocks of China. 90 million Chinese wander around their country looking for work. How many thousands of SARS cases are just floating around the Chinese countryside? We won’t know until the bodies start piling up.

The global economic impact of SARS will be quite serious for Asia. My judgment is I do not possibly see how we can avoid a global SARS pandemic. We have no way of making a vaccine, since we only understand 78% of what is in the SARS virus. We have no clinical way of treating the virus effectively. We have no clear idea of how it is spread. We have no clear idea of how to prevent it being spread. We have no clear idea of why dozens of health care workers have gotten SARS even though they were using standard aseptic protocols. In other words, we don’t know very much at all about SARS. Once the hysteria spreads, the global economy will simply grind to a halt. Hong Kong retail sales are down 80%. Singapore tourism is down 70%. Asian air lines are canceling dozens of flights. The list of economic casualties is a lengthy one. And what can the health officials tell the businessman about when people will feel safe enough to return to China, Hong Kong or the rest of Asia? Weeks, months, years? No one knows and that is my point.

Can you imagine the impact on say Hong Kong if retail sales, or air travel, or tourism permanently declines 50% for six months. SARS may go away, only to leave a shattered economy in its wake. Morgan Stanley is now saying they expect Red China’s economy to decline 2% this quarter. Care to contemplate the global economic implications of that statement? Know anyone who plans to go anywhere near Toronto, Canada anytime soon? What do you think http://www.gold-eagle.com readers will happen to “globalism” when the World Health Organization has travel advisories on most of the major world cities? Deluded rants from doomer doug?, or the evening news six months from now. You tell me!

One of the tests I’ve been using is a estimated case numbers per moving weekly average in April. The list is over at http://www.rense.com and said that 3,000 cases would be known by such and such a day in April and 6000 cases by the end of April. That list has been right on for a global pandemic to begin sometime in May. Considering the lies of Red China, we have no real way of knowing exactly where we are on SARS right now. My personal opinion is it will continue to grow over the spring and summer, before turning into a true global pandemic during the normal flu season next winter. Given the large numbers of people with suppressed immune systems, i.e.. AIDS, elderly, etc., I see no way of avoiding a higher death rate than the suspect official rate of 5%. Once SARS gets out into the general population of the advanced countries, people with suppressed immune systems are going to be in trouble. Once SARS gets out into the general populations of countries without much of a health care system at all: well, imagine how an African with AIDS would fare once they got SARS. The only real question is have the dikes been breached without anyone noticing. The answer to that, in my opinion, is yes they have and the tidal wave is headed towards us.

I believe that spring 2003 will not be remembered for the War in Iraq. The only historically significant issue with Mr. Bush and his war will be the rape and pillage of history. The looting of artifacts will be what people remember about the Iraq War in 1000 years. Nor will it be remembered for the sour economy, or even the idiocy passing for prime time programming on American television. I think future historians will make the determination the Red Chinese leadership was so greedy, arrogant and incompetent that they squandered the one chance the world had in dealing with SARS. Future historians will look back at the results of that Red Chinese negligence and see it as the main story of 2003. Mene, Mene, Tekel, Uparsin wrote the divine hand on the walls of Babylon as the Imperial Lords of that era got drunk using the sacred cups. The days of our civilization have been numbered and our cup is now full. Our civilization has been weighed on the scales of justice and found wanting. Our civilization will be given to others. Isn’t it truly ironic that as America beats its chest in triumph over Iraq, an unknown virus prepares to destroy the foundations of the global economy and take our vaunted military with it. I am watching the chaos theory unfold in all its glory. The Globalist Empire done in by Red Chinese shrimp shit and the virus it spawned. Who needs reality television when reality is like this. The SARS battle will be won or lost in Red China. We have already lost there. The choice is between pandemic or globalism. Business as usual means a global SARS epidemic. Business not as usual means a global economic recession/depression. Maybe Mr. Sender is correct and SARS is some kind of Chinese counter move to Iraq. Too bad nobody told the virus to stay in the bottle.

 

26 April 2003

ABNORMAL SYMPTOMS? 4-28-2013

Doomer Doug has noticed a certain phrase being used by Chinese health authorities when talking about the people exposed to the 125 confirmed cases of flu. April 23rd had a total of 108 documented flu cases. April 25th had a total of 120. Today the 28th we are assured there were only five additional cases in a three day period. This is when the average increase has been in the three to five per day range. Perhaps the Chinese government is under counting documented cases.

Today also saw the admission of a second case in Hunan deep in central China. The flu will continue to spread.

The phrase “abnormal symptoms” Doomer Doug finds very interesting. We know hundreds of people were exposed to infected flu carriers. This is a fact. Doomer Doug simply notes the official Chinese government response is not to say there have been no symptoms in the hundreds of people exposed to infected people. They are instead saying that there have been no “abnormal symptoms.” Doomer Doug has no idea of what criteria Chinese health officials use to determine the difference between a normal symptom and one that is abnormal.

This is yet another example of the systematic coverup of the flu epidemic by Chinese officials. It should be clear to anybody with a brain that this means these exposed people are clearly suffering from normal symptoms of their flu exposure. We are also being assured that there is no human to human transmission. Okay! At any rate, Doomer Doug finds the admission these exposed people are suffering normal symptoms disturbing. One would assume normal symptoms to flu exposure would be high fever, coughing and things like that. The Chinese government has as usual decided the policy of the cover up, misdirection and withholding of the actual data to be the way to go. The Chinese government routinely uses these methods when dealing with unpleasant facts.

Doomer Doug will only say these exposed people are now obviously exhibiting “normal symptoms” in response to their flu exposure. While Doomer Doug is not sure what that means, it doesn’t sound very good.

CHINA FLU GOING CRITICAL MASS 4-27-2013

Since I wrote the blog entry two days ago, China’s flu epidemic has gone critical.

People need to understand this flu had its epicenter in the eastern coastal city of Shanghai in late February and March. There have now been a total of 120 cases in China as of today. Further, the geographic progression has now taken a very disturbing trend as of today. The flu started in Shanghai. It has spread north along the coast in the last three weeks. It has spread to Bejing several hundred miles inland from the East Coast of China. It has spread south from Shanghai to the Fujan area. Finally, it is now confirmed in the CENTRAL CHINESE AREA OF HUNAN. This is a HUGE dot. The flu virus has now spread over much of the east coast of China. It has now spread inland to Bejing. It has now spread inland, towards the west, into Hunan. We are talking hundreds of miles here.

If Shanghai is compared to Washington, D.C. Bejing is New York City. Fujan is Georgia. Hunan is Saint Louis. You see my point here. Don’t be misled by “only” 120 cases. It is very clear the actual number of cases are being under-counted by Chinese authorities. If you place a pin on the map showing Hunan in the west, and you place a pin on Taiwan in the east you will get a clearer view of why the flu battle is now lost in China. China has a big holiday coming up on May 1st. This holiday means TENS OF MILLIONS OF CHINESE will travel all over their country. This will spread the bird flu into all areas of China.

One more thing. It is appalling to see the Chinese health officials STILL DENYING the reality of human to human flu transmission at this late date. You cannot get the kind of geometric progression of cases without human to human transmission. You can’t get the kind of geographic progression from Shanghai to Bejing, to Hunan in the west and Taiwan in the east without human to human transmission. It is IMPOSSIBLE for the flu virus to have spread over such a wide area in less than one month without human to human airborne vector transmission.

At any rate, Doomer Doug expects the flu virus to spread all over China by June 1st at the absolute latest.

 

FLU EPIDEMIC 4-25-13

Doomer Doug is becoming more concerned about the Chinese flu situation. For starters, there is a Chinese military officer running around claiming it is all an American plot. Chinese government officials are always in a race between corruption and incompetence. The world is going to pay dearly for the usual level of stupidity the Chinese government shows. China has made several mistakes already with this flu. First, they assumed it was a bird flu. It is not. Next, they assumed you had to be exposed to poultry to get it. You do not. Forty percent of the total cases have had no contact with poultry. The large majority of the birds culled do not have this virus in them. Ergo, it is not a bird flu, nor do you get it from close contact with poultry. These two false assumption have hamstrung the global response to this potential global flu pandemic. We can expect nothing less than incompetence from China’s official response. People all over the world will die due to Chinese incompetence. After all, we have a long list of Chinese negligence related to toxic products.

The next issue is a few comments on disease vector. The flu virus is mostly spread by being sprayed into the air by a person coughing. The flu virus can remain suspended in an aerosol droplet form for up to twenty four hours. You can also get it from physical contact with objects contaminated by secretions from infected people. The debate over human to human transmission is over. We are now very clearly in a human to human transmission mode.

The other issues in my mind today are geographic progression and geometric progression. The lethal flu virus is maintaining a kill rate of 20 percent. It is now firmly established all over eastern China, northeast China, and Beijing more towards the center. It will now infill the blank areas between Shanghai on the coast, all the way up to the North Korean border. Further, the flu virus has now gotten to Taiwan. The virus is spreading widely throughout China, Taiwan.

The final issue is geometric progression. When I take a look at the case numbers, the increases of the reported cases on a daily and weekly basis, I can see the horsemen coming. I do not assume the Chinese government is giving truthful and accurate numbers. The public numbers are likely to be between ten percent and twenty percent of the actual numbers. If you through in the large numbers of sick people not showing symptoms, well you get the idea.

The “official reported cases of flu” in China were 14 on April 5th, 2013. 9 days later on the 14th they were 51. Three days later on the 17th the reported cases were 79. The reported cases for the 25th are 120. Again, the real numbers are likely much, much higher.

What I see with these numbers is it took the last part of February, all of March, as well as 5 days into April to get the first 14 cases. It took 9 days to go from 14 to 51. It took 3 days to get to 79. It took 8 days to get to 120. This is for China only. This is for officially government reported cases in China only. We are off the grid here folks.

When I wrote the previous blog entry, there were no cases in Taiwan. There were no cases in several of the major Chinese cities in the north east and north central. There were less reported cases.

The flu epidemic is now here in China and Taiwan. I think it will continue spreading throughout China and Taiwan.  The flu is coming to the USA. it is only a matter of time.

Flu Pandemic 4-21-2013

China has always been where the great disease epidemics begin. The “Asian Soup” is composed of water, pig, human, chicken, duck and other animals fecal material. It is from this we get the bacteria and viruses needed to lay the foundation for pandemics.

There are several facts related to China and disease. The epicenter for the current flu is Shanghai. Shanghai is where several thousand dead pigs were found floating in the river Shanghai uses for fresh water. The Chinese government assures us there is no connection. ROTFLMAO Let me just say people have died, and will continue to die due to Chinese health authorities covering up the truth.

We now have a flu outbreak that has gone from a total of 3 cases to 103 in the last 3 weeks. The death total is now 20. This is a 20 per cent kill rate. The thing people need to understand about how diseases work is this. A bacteria or virus doesn’t want to kill off the infected animal or human. Diseases, like Ebola, with a high 90 percent kill rate, will burn out quickly. A flu virus that has a 20 percent kill rate will continue mutating, infecting merrily along. My point being the fact that only 20 percent of people infected are dying is an extremely bad sign. The fact that nearly 80 percent of the total deaths are people over 50 years old tells me the flu virus is mutating to increase lethality. The get well and leave patients are currently young people and young children. The virus is mutating to be able to kill them. It just hasn’t perfected the ability to overwhelm young and healthy responsive immune systems.

I am seeing three things here in terms of a global pandemic.

One: The disease is mutating. The disease is killing 20 percent of the people it is infecting. It is using the other 80 percent as a fabrication factory to increase effectiveness. We are seeing people with no symptoms.

Two: We are seeing the start of the mutation process needed for sustained human to human flu virus transmission. We are also seeing the mutation process for vector change to either contact or airborne.

Three: We are seeing the rapid spread of the flu virus in China. This is very bad since it means the virus has been mutating, changing and spreading for quite a while. Do not focus on the numbers of cases. Focus on the percentage of increase. 3 cases to 103 cases in three weeks is a MASSIVE rate of increase. It is a rate of increase of  OVER THREE THOUSAND PERCENT. Now if that rate of increase is sustained for another month or two, well you get the idea.

We are on the edge here, gang.