Israel’s Decisive Military and Political Defeat 11-21-12

Israel had three political and military objectives in Gaza. Israel has failed in all three of them.
The first was to stop, not suspend, but to stop HAMAS incoming rocket fire. They have failed to do this since missiles are still falling on Israel after the so called cease fire took effect. Bibi may be waiting for HAMAS to keep sending missiles in, or keep blowing up Tel Aviv transit vehicles before he moves in. It is cynical, but may be what Obama and Hellary demand for full support of a ground invasion.

The second goal was to eliminate HAMAS’ ability to locally produce long range missiles and also Iran’s ability to import long range missiles into Gaza. Israel has failed to do that also, but it will take some time to see that.

The third goal was to weaken HAMAS. Israel has done that, but at the cost of elevating Islamic Jihad, a bought and paid for Iranian proxy. We shall see how that works out. Israel is now faced with another Hezzbollah on its southern border. HAMAS will strut around, they are already doing so, claiming they defeated Israel, just like Hezzbollah did in 2006. This is a big political failure for Bibi. He may be bailed out by HAMAS showering Israel with even more missiles, or he may not.

The sum total is the cease fire represents the total failure of Israel to achieve any of its stated military and political goals for Operation Pillar. Hamas has won in the political sphere, as Egypt did also. Hamas still has plenty of missiles on hand. Hamas will now, assuming they are smart enough to resist the impulse to keep shelling Israel, import shiploads of the latest long range Iranian missiles with impunity. Does anybody think the Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt will stop missile resupply for Gaza? Doomer Doug doesn’t.

Hamas will now import hundreds/thousands of the newest Iranian missiles while Israel watches Egypt do nothing. The next time around, and there will be a next time, will see salvos of 200 missiles at Tel Aviv, and not two or three. The missiles will have heavier payloads, 200 kilograms of explosive, versus 175. They will have better targeting systems as well. Does anybody doubt Iran has had cyber technicians mapping out every missile strike in Tel Aviv for the next battle. Doomer doug remembers the John Wayne movie “Green Berets” where the VC walked around the firebase marking them for incoming mortar rounds. Bibi has just assured that the next missile wave will not land in a lot of open fields like this wave did.

The comments above reflect the opinion of many in Israel. Bibi was under a lot of pressure from Hellary and Obama no doubt. He caved into it, or perhaps he is gambling that HAMAS won’t be able to stop the missiles into Israel. If that is the case, then he will be able to justify a ground incursion needed to destroy the missile factories, launch sites, and stockpiles. It is a big gamble, and if, repeat if, HAMAS, Islamic Jihad and Iran are patient enough, they can win big.

We are at a rest break for the moment. Doomer Doug does not assume the cease fire will hold. If it does, Israel will have suffered the worst military and political defeat in its history.

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